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Modelling preprint from LSHTM published showing that in almost all scenarios, opening schools at this point in England without additional mitigation results in R rising above 1, and exponential rises in cases resuming. Short thread
First, these results are unsurprising given that in our last lockdown in November, new variant cases were rising with an R of 1.45 even during lockdown, but while schools were open. This is the best comparator given the new variant is now dominant across England.
In almost all scenarios R rises above 1 (we are at ~0.8 or so now) when opening primary or secondary schools or both.
Important caveat: The susceptibility & transmissibility assumptions seem to be from studies which examined this mostly before the new variant. The study states that the actual impact on R will depend on the changes in frequency of the new variant - now dominant across England.
All evidence points to needing safety measures in schools prior to opening. We've been here several times before- it's crucial we don't make the same mistakes again - leading to yet another wave & school closures once again. We need a sustainable strategy for school opening.
