My Champions League round of 16 preview and predictions

[THREAD]

Barcelona - PSG

Messi against Neymar (if he’s fit) is a match-up you always love to see, guaranteed spectacle. And a Barça vs PSG clash proved to be a magnificent series. This is also the chance for Poch to prove that he’s still class after more than a year away from football.

Let’s start talking about Barcelona. They started the season pretty rough, Koeman couldn’t find out his preferred XI and how to fit all of them in a balanced approach. However, he has solved this and now Barça look formidable. One of the best teams in January in Europe.

And I think the key to Barça’s success has been the Pedri x Messi link, they understand to perfection. Another key to their success has been the increase of runs ahead of the ball. FDJ was given the role of #8, making those runs with great speed and power.

And the defence has been superb, Araújo has established himself in the XI and he has been one of Barça’s best players. Now looking into PSG, they have been good, but I wasn’t incredibly surprised by them. Poch is still trying to figure out his preferred approach.

Poch tried a lot of things: a 442, a 433, a 4231, Paredes/Verratti + a destroyer midfield, Paredes + Verratti midfield, 2 destroyers + Verratti/Paredes, Sarabia on the left, etc. He has won almost everything, but not having a defined approach could hurt them in games like these.

We all know Poch is a brilliant tactician though, he knows how to adapt in game to the opposition. And it’s true that Koeman doesn’t know how to adapt, this could hurt Barça a lot. I also think that we need to take a look at the squads.

Barça’s squad is quite complete everywhere, while PSG’s isn’t. In fact, PSG are probably going to play with Bakker or Kurzawa as a starter and that is not ideal. I think Barça have the upper hand here, not only they look incredible right now, they also have the right counters.

I think Araújo is a perfect player to defend Neymar and Mbappé, he’s very hard to dribble and very fast. Dembélé against Kurzawa and Messi against Florenzi will be too much, and then you have Pedri’s incredible movement and FDJ’s runs into the box.

I don’t think Kimpembe is a good box defender, these FDJ’s runs will be difficult to handle for PSG. IMO this match should be won by Barça, PSG still need some work in order to compete in the UCL again.

Winner: Barcelona

RB Leipzig - Liverpool

A very German match-up in terms of style of play, maximum intensity and gegenpress. Klopp vs Nagelsmann, this should be very interesting. And considering current form and problems, this should be a much more equal series than what we thought.

Liverpool have had a lot of problems and it’s no secret, they look very bad and injuries have done them bad. They look slower, with less ideas, in need of a change, without being good on both ends, with VVD out, etc. Things don’t look good.

I’ve seen Liverpool with less ideas and with much less fluent game, less speed and less direct. Liverpool used to be a team that were super direct, that hit you with fast attacks and dangerous movement, but I haven’t seen that from them this season.

Perhaps I am biased here, but I think it’s mainly because of the inclusion of Thiago in the starting XI. He’s a player that plays much slower and likes to have the ball a lot, and that eventually hurts Liverpool. But they also look unmotivated, they press with much less desire.

Now Leipzig are flying high, on unreal form. Second in the league and Nagelsmann playing proper football. Nagelsmann is such a fantastic manager, always plays intelligent games with good approaches to games. With no Werner this season, he has played Forsberg as a false 9 a lot.

Often playing him next to Olmo or another innovative option depending on opposition. He is very good at adapting to the other teams and they attack in a way that counters Liverpool’s defensive shape. Their movement up top and combo of players in between lines and runs are great.

They also hit very well organised and fast counters, that always hurts Liverpool. Leipzig are a team that is comfortable building from the back, and we know Liverpool’s press is a huge part of their game. Considering Liverpool look unmotivated in the press, they’ll find it hard.

Leipzig has also been very comfortable to sit deep, the defensive structure has improved. In their draw against Bayern they sat deep almost all the game and countered very well. We also know Liverpool’s main threat is crossing, and should Leipzig start Orban they’ll be okay IMO.

I know Liverpool’s sheer quality should be enough to defeat Leipzig, but Leipzig’s tactical approach and intelligence of their manager tells me otherwise. I am going to go with the upset here and say Leipzig win over two legs.

Winner: RB Leipzig

Sevilla - Borussia Dortmund

I believe this is the most interesting match-up of them all. Koundé vs Håland will be a hell of a fight, both destined to be the best in the world in their positions. Dortmund filled with problems and Sevilla flying high, I am super excited for it.

It is true that Sevilla haven’t looked brilliant, in fact, they have looked worse than last season, but they still can’t stop winning. No matter how bad they play, they constantly compete and win or come close to doing so. And their squad is immense, filled with quality.

Not only they have world class players in the starting XI like Koundé and En-Nesyri, they have a formidable bench with great depth. Sevilla have looked extremely functional, balanced, with fantastic positional play, and they added Papu Gómez in winter.

Meanwhile, you have a dysfunctional Dortmund on the other side. Sixth in the league, rarely get a win, not a real manager in charge, a very unhappy squad, etc. I don’t think they can keep up with Sevilla’s quality at all, they are a lot of steps behind.

Sevilla are a team fighting for the league title, on par in terms of points with Barça and Madrid. Dortmund are nowhere near that. Yes, the Koundé vs Håland fight will be interesting, but the Frenchmen will most likely come victorious.

Winner: Sevilla

Atlético de Madrid - Chelsea

As you all know, I dislike predicting Atleti’s big ties/games. So, I will not predict this one. Aúpa Atleti, I believe in the players and the team. Bucharest, here we go!

Porto - Juventus

Should be one of the most one sided series of the round of 16. Ronaldo is the king of the UCL and he won’t allow a second early exit in a row. Pirlo has also shown intelligence in two legged ties as well, so it’ll be interesting seeing how he handles this one.

I like Juventus a lot this season, I am a big fan of Pirlo and his approach. Their front three of Ronaldo, Morata and Ramsey is one of my favourite in world football. They also have tons of depth everywhere, I like their squad a lot.

And this 2021 they have been on outstanding form, won every game expect two and qualified to the Coppa Italia final. Then we have Porto, who have impressed me most of the times I’ve seen them. Conceição’s men play some good football and they have tons of quality in their squad.

I like their fast football and FV Football followers know I am a big Luis Díaz fan, but they haven’t been on good form recently. They even are 7 points below first placed Sporting CP with one more game. Despite doing brilliant in their UCL group, I can’t see them doing much here.

So yeah, I am of course going for the Ronaldo and Juve win here, I don’t think Porto have even a slight chance. Juve’s quality outclasses Porto’s all over the pitch by an incredible margin.

Winner: Juventus

Lazio - Bayern München

One of the few very one sided affairs in this round of 16. Lazio have enjoyed a hot run of form recently, but they are far from what they were last season. And Bayern, although more susceptible at the back, are still demolishing everyone.

I actually believe Lazio play exactly how Bayern want to be played. Lazio are always too open on defence, the spaces between players and lines are at times immense; and they also like to keep the ball when in the final third, with Milinković-Savić working as a target-man.

Those are things Bayern aren’t scared of, they tend to struggle against sides who sit in a deep block, counter and have a lot of runs in behind their defenders. So, ignoring Bayern’s clear superiority in the players, tactically this works to treat for them.

This is easily the worst match-up possible for Lazio and I obviously have them losing this one. I like Immobile and SMS, but them alone are not enough.

Winner: Bayern München

Atalanta - Real Madrid

Such an interesting match-up and one very hard to predict. None of these two teams have looked as good as last season, but the spectacle is assured. Atalanta still play super exiting footy and Madrid still have Benz, Modrić and Kroos performing.

First and foremost, I want to say that the tactical battle definitely benefits Real Madrid. See, Atalanta this season have performed much better against attacking teams, teams that like to have the ball and are fast with possession, and Madrid aren’t exactly that.

Meanwhile, Madrid have been much better against teams that play attacking footy like Atalanta. Madrid also have formidable players to play against a man mark style of defending like the one Atalanta use. Benzema, Vinicius and Modrić are fantastic at getting away from their mark.

I like the addition of Matteo Pessina to the starting XI, he looks formidable and much more suited to a balanced Atalanta than Papu. He presses better, essential against Madrid, and he tracks back, which Papu did not do. I also think Atalanta have got much better against press.

Cristian Romero, player I think very highly of, helps them bypass pressure way easier, he’s an incredible ball carrier and brilliant on the ball. So I think Madrid won’t be that dangerous there. However, I still think Madrid have the upper hand for the things I’ve said before.

I think Madrid have the tactical advantage here and the loss of Papu Gónez, their leader and player that creates the most havoc in these matches, will hurt Atalanta a lot. Despite injuries, I have Madrid winning.

Winner: Real Madrid

Borussia Mönchengladbach - Manchester City

Despite how much I like Marco Rose and Borussia Mönchengladbach, I think it’s pretty clear who the winner is going to be here. Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City are flying incredibly high, they seem unstoppable right now.

I think City are the most in form team in the world right now, thrashed Spurs and Liverpool like it was nothing. And I also think their new set-up favours them massively in big UCL clashes. The big tactical change from last season is their defence.

Not focusing on personnel, which has obviously got better, they now defend with much more pragmatism and much more cautious of counters. Cancelo’s positioning is helping the counters a lot, he slots in the center of the park and helps covering them with his pace.

We then of course have the resurrection of John Stones, who now is living for defending, which he previously didn’t. And the signing of Rúben Dias, which has been amazing, nothing short from perfect. And I could go on for days talking about their new offensive structure.

To sum up: Pep Guardiola has evolved, and I think this new evolution will be greatly beneficial in UCL ties. Plus, the announcement of Marco Rose leaving won’t help the team’s morale at all. I believe this’ll be an easy City win.

Winner: Manchester City

This was all for my preview and predictions. A super long thread this time, way longer than what it usually is, but well. I don’t expect anyone to read it, but I am posting it anyways. You can of course tell me your predictions as well.

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