A glimpse behind the wizard’s curtain as we see an Imperial modeller doing some modelling. Good grief. 1/ Thread https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/1361418477861367809

She works on the basis that 90% of people will have the vaccine and the vaccine reduces the risk of death by 90%. Therefore 19% are unprotected and there could be “tens of thousands” of deaths in the summer. This scenario is taken as fact by the presenter. 2/

3/ But take up of the vaccine is at 96% among the under-80s and 91% among people aged 80+ so that already looks pessimistic. https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/

4/ Moreover, the Oxford vaccine appears to be 100% effective in preventing death (and serious disease). https://www.astrazeneca.com/media-centre/press-releases/2021/covid-19-vaccine-astrazeneca-confirms-protection-against-severe-disease-hospitalisation-and-death-in-the-primary-analysis-of-phase-iii-trials.html

5/ The Pfizer vaccine appears to be 95% effective in the prevention of symptomatic disease, full stop. https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-conclude-phase-3-study-covid-19-vaccine

6/ The results of the Pfizer trial have been replicated in Israel almost exactly. 94% symptomatic cases, no deaths. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-israel-vaccine/israeli-study-finds-94-drop-in-symptomatic-covid-19-cases-with-pfizer-vaccine-idUSKBN2AE0Q2

7/ The modeller acknowledges that there is “uncertainty” about the assumptions but the scenario drawn on the whiteboard is nevertheless presented as “the model”. The presenter says that deviating from its assumptions would be “guesswork”.

8/ But it’s not guesswork, is it? Vaccine uptake might change and we will find out more about efficacy in the future, but we have evidence for both of these now which is a hell of a lot better than some round numbers plucked out of the air.

9/ I will leave it for others to judge the plausibility of every unprotected individual getting the virus at the same time in the middle of summer, but if these people are bound to get the virus, they will get it regardless of when lockdown ends.

10/ Incredibly, the scenario presented to those exposed to the News at Ten is more credible than the totally worthless model Imperial published last month. https://velvetgloveironfist.blogspot.com/2021/02/the-covid-modellers-have-jumped-shark.html?m=0

11/ A final point. She seems to assume that all the unvaccinated people will be unprotected, but if they are representative of the general population, 30% will have already had Covid (Neil Ferguson’s estimate), of whom most, if not all, will have acquired immunity.