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Truly major insights into the dynamics of Sino-US relations from a book written 21 years ago by Dale C. Copeland.
Some considerations below! (Trying to imitate @ProfPaulPoast's legedary threads)
https://www.cornellpress.cornell.edu/book/9780801437502/the-origins-of-major-war/
Some considerations below! (Trying to imitate @ProfPaulPoast's legedary threads)
https://www.cornellpress.cornell.edu/book/9780801437502/the-origins-of-major-war/
Copeland's main point is that more often than not major wars are launched by the dominant power, not the rising one, when decline seems irreversible and deep. This has little/nothing to do with the intensions of the rising power but with its potential power in the long run.
As pointed out by @shifrinson, rising powers might actually decide to SUPPORT the dominant power under certain circumstances, thereby helping to extend its period of dominance. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/01402390.2018.1558056
Of course, different ideologies can undermine relations among countries.
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/09636412.2014.874205
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/09636412.2014.874205
And so can certain actions made by the rising power at home and abroad. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09636419708429336?journalCode=fsst20
Perception of decline is crucial and a notoriously difficult thing to do.
In absolute terms, it seems that US power is not declining. The contrary might be true. https://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/full/10.1162/isec_a_00328#authorsTabList
In absolute terms, it seems that US power is not declining. The contrary might be true. https://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/full/10.1162/isec_a_00328#authorsTabList
In strictly military terms, it is unlikely that the gap between China and the US will be closed any time soon, as pointed out by @Mauro_Gilli and @Mauro_Gilli. https://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/full/10.1162/isec_a_00337?fbclid=IwAR2bSPvM2lIHMzwbO9gWQfYy05aYklgvsF320TqVSSTAAuQY3ujgOC3x32E&mobileUi=0
Geography and commitments in other parts of the world, however, mean that US military primacy is contested in Asia. https://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/10.1162/ISEC_a_00160
Such uncertainties have long shaped US policy vis-à-vis China.
Elite socialization has long been the US preferred strategy to bring China within the US-led liberal order. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09636412.2019.1604986
Elite socialization has long been the US preferred strategy to bring China within the US-led liberal order. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09636412.2019.1604986
China's power has kept on growing and socialization was not very successful. So, writes @NinaSilove, US strategy has become one of engagement and balancing, and not containment, until Trump. https://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/abs/10.1162/ISEC_a_00238?journalCode=isec
So, what to do? I do know know. Other scholars have put forward different options.
Retrenchment? @pkmacdonald and Joseph M. Parent argued that this is a viable and potentially effective option. https://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/10.1162/ISEC_a_00034
Retrenchment? @pkmacdonald and Joseph M. Parent argued that this is a viable and potentially effective option. https://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/10.1162/ISEC_a_00034
A grand bargain in Asia based on mutual concessions over key issues? https://www.belfercenter.org/publication/us-china-grand-bargain-hard-choice-between-military-competition-and-accommodation
Or is Asia's intrisic value still, and will remain, something that the US is ready to keep out of other countries' hand, also militarily, in order to preserve the global status quo? https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09636419608429283?journalCode=fsst20
As Copeland makes clear, it is the dominant power, how it manages its fears and domestic affairs, that largely determines whether there will be war or not.
That said, I can only hope that ppl in Washington and Beijing can find new, peaceful ways to work and live together.
That said, I can only hope that ppl in Washington and Beijing can find new, peaceful ways to work and live together.
