So latest poll has SNP on 54% of the Constituency vote and 43% of the Regional vote (Greens on 10%).
This would give SNP 1 list seat and the Greens 11 giving an Indy majority of 35.
(1/2)
This would give SNP 1 list seat and the Greens 11 giving an Indy majority of 35.
(1/2)
Now if we change the Regional share for the SNP to 54% (so all SNP 1/2) it would give the SNP 7 list seats and the Greens 0 meaning the Indy majority would be reduced to 25.
NB: The SNP would have an outright majority in both cases.
(2/2)
NB: The SNP would have an outright majority in both cases.
(2/2)
Actually here's a 3rd scenario...
Let's give 10% of the SNP vote to another indy party.
The SNP would get 0 list seats, the Greens 10 & the other indy party 8. Meaning an indy majority of 47.
SNP would still have an outright majority
Let's give 10% of the SNP vote to another indy party.
The SNP would get 0 list seats, the Greens 10 & the other indy party 8. Meaning an indy majority of 47.
SNP would still have an outright majority
And lets go wild and give 20% of the SNP vote to the other indy party.
The result would be SNP 0 list seats, other indy party 17 & Greens 8 giving a whopping indy majority of 61.
And still the SNP would have an outright majority.
The result would be SNP 0 list seats, other indy party 17 & Greens 8 giving a whopping indy majority of 61.
And still the SNP would have an outright majority.