Why did the Tatmadaw announce this now given how controversial dam projects are in #Myanmar? The military may feel pressure to reassure foreign investors (& keep electricity on) but it's early days. This will only fuel suspicion of Chinese support for the coup (ie, quid pro quo). https://twitter.com/hninyadanazaw/status/1361342971979857924

I'm told Myitsone wasn't mentioned in the official announcement, but it's exactly what everyone will think. This is strange because it was the USDP gov (retired generals) that suspended the dam. Beijing pressured the NLD to resume w/ no success. This is sure to provoke backlash.

So either the new junta feels compelled to ensure its people the electricity will keep running in light of strikes at the Ministry of Electricity; this is a signal to international investors #Myanmar is open for biz; or it's tied to some sort of backroom deal w/ Beijing.

None of these explanations are particularly persuasive until we get more information. It's far too soon to say this proves Beijing was behind the coup (as I've said before: https://twitter.com/hmarston4/status/1356343684032200704). But this is an odd move given how politically unpopular dams + the military are.

A 4th possible reason: rather than an explicit deal w/ Beijing, the new SAC junta is trying to bind BJ to its side & win its support by floating prospect of resuming #Myitsone. Such a move may appeal to Xi Jinping because he was personally invested in the dam. In 2009 as VP...

...Xi visited #Myanmar & the two sides agreed to upgrade the capacity of Myitsone Dam from 3600 to 6000 megawatts, according to @IrrawaddyNews: https://www2.irrawaddy.com/article.php?art_id=22094. More on this in @KelleyCurrie's thread here: https://twitter.com/KelleyCurrie/status/1361712037693374466.

Yet such ingratiation may be grating on Beijing's nerves, as it has tried to make clear that it did not support the coup: https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202102/1215672.shtml?fbclid=IwAR069piihQDDI9pjBnp1aLq2m-DfIMN84IjU1orZjeWaeQm5gBcbG44JX3k. BJ was happy to work w/ the NLD, as I explained in a previous thread on China & #MyanmarCoup: https://twitter.com/hmarston4/status/1356343684032200704

Elsewhere, @charlesdunst has explained why the coup is a "headache for China": https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/cff/2021/02/16/myanmars-coup-a-blow-to-democracy-a-headache-for-china/. If BJ continues to distance itself from the junta, the latter may find itself increasingly isolated & under pressure to de-escalate. But only events in coming days will tell.