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Today on @CBSThisMorning , Mike Osterholm pronounced that the next 14 weeks would be our "darkest days" due to the variants. He is predicting a surge that will surpass what we have seen so far - even in November 2020, apparently. 1/8
He might be right, but let's see in 14 weeks - Memorial Day weekend. I just personally don't understand how he can be so sure of himself on this. It seems like the increasing vaccinations and decreasing cases don't foretell that the worst is yet to come. He sounds alarmist. 2/8
Yes, the variants are troubling. But I would like to put this out here since none of my public health colleagues seem willing to challenge him, or point out when he has been wrong. I respect him, but I don't personally care for the way he answers media questions sometimes. 3/8
He often will speculate or say things in a way that don't really allow anyone to later on point out how alarmist and negative he was when things turn out differently. 4/8
He gets a lot of credit for being right and is called super insightful when things go as badly as he said they would, and no criticism when things turn out not at all like what he thought. 5/8
Unpredictable things do happen, making it easy to forgive or forget incorrect predictions. But it's that unpredictability which is why I find it hard to take bold predictions too seriously. 6/8
Public health communications is really hard to get right. It is a hard balance to strike between warning about real dangers and encouraging people to change their behavior - and therefore change the terrible future that we are so worried about. 7/8
That said - I will make my own prediction: I think we're going to be in a good place in May. At the least, I don't think cases will surge higher than ever. If I am wrong by Memorial Day, I will admit it. But if I am right, everyone should call out those who were wrong. 8/fin
