Based on an analysis of the latest data and the recommendations of @IndependentSage @dgurdasani1 and others, I have proposed a new set of "5 tests" for discussion by @NEUnion members so we can insist on what's needed to ensure we return #OnlyWhenItsSafe

https://www.mpdnut.com/2021/02/a-new-5-tests-to-avoid-unsafe.html

1/ Do schools and school-aged children contribute significantly to community transmission? SAGE's own evidence shows this shouldn't even be a debate!

2/ As @dgurdasani1 pointed out, SAGE also recognise the, tcorrelation between confirmed Covid-19 cases and school holidays, with rates dipping during the half-term school closure, for example.

3/ Clusters and outbreaks have continued to be reported in those settings where Headteachers have been under pressure to maintain high numbers in class – i.e. Nursery, Primary and Special Needs

4/ That could also be why the latest ONS Infection Survey shows the slowest rate of fall in positivity rates in the “Age 2 to School Year 6” age group.

5/ We cannot only focus on #COVID19 deaths, @ONS estimates around 300,000 individuals presently suffering from #LongCovid symptoms after 5 weeks and that includes a significant proportion (over 1 in 7) of school-aged children.

6/ While infection rates thankfully continue to fall, if the @IndependentSage tiered “Traffic Light” criteria are applied in the UK, then no Nation and no English Region is yet even in the ‘red light’ zone of under 100 per 100,000 cases over a 7-day period.

7/ As things stand with a month to go to the date when @BorisJohnson apparently wants to push for wider opening, infection rates in over ¾ of UTLAs are still too high even for the partial opening suggested by @IndependentSage and others, let alone full classes.

8/ If you want to download my proposals to read as a pdf, try here: http://bit.ly/3pmoNOr  or read my blog here: https://www.mpdnut.com/2021/02/a-new-5-tests-to-avoid-unsafe.html

9/ A recent @bmj_latest article raises particular concerns about the transmissibility of new variants amongst young children. In an Italian village, 10% tested positive. 60% of those positive tests were from children of primary or infant school age. https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n383

10/ Please also sign the open letter from @Parents_Utd drawing on the same scientific evidence and also calling for a similar tiered approach to that recommended by @IndependentSage and the CDC.