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Since this is big news today I'm going to outline the dangers of becoming dependent on renewables without dependable back-up systems. I am a Electrician/Energy management specialist for those interested I am going to share some common industry knowledge in this thread. https://twitter.com/weatherchannel/status/1361330608299999242
Some basics: Lets use the averages from 2018 for a Texas Household using 39.2 kWh per day. There are 2.5 Million
customers without power. That would be 98,000 Megawatt Hours for a full day.
Source: https://www.texaselectricityratings.com/blog/what-is-the-average-daily-kwh-usage-per-household-in-texas/
customers without power. That would be 98,000 Megawatt Hours for a full day.
Source: https://www.texaselectricityratings.com/blog/what-is-the-average-daily-kwh-usage-per-household-in-texas/
Customers does not equate to houses, these could be commercial buildings as well. So to correct for this lets bump it up to an even 60kWh per day. Being conservative as this is not an average day.
What is a kWh?:
https://www.texaselectricityratings.com/blog/what-is-the-average-daily-kwh-usage-per-household-in-texas/
What is a kWh?:
https://www.texaselectricityratings.com/blog/what-is-the-average-daily-kwh-usage-per-household-in-texas/
We are looking at 60kWh X 2.5 Million = 150 Million kWh or 150,000 MWh. Divide that by 24 for an hourly shortfall of 6,250 MWh.
Your average windmill in Texas has a rating of 2.5 Mega Watts. That's 100% they rarely produce that, but lets assume 100%, that's only 2500 windmills.
Your average windmill in Texas has a rating of 2.5 Mega Watts. That's 100% they rarely produce that, but lets assume 100%, that's only 2500 windmills.
Take Tesla's Mega Pack Utility Scale Battery systems that boast they can put a 1 GigaWatt Hour system on 3 acres. You would need 150 of these plants to maybe cover that 24 hour period. Now add a bunch more power systems to produce that surplus. https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottsnowden/2019/07/31/tesla-announces-a-new-utility-scale-energy-storage-product-called-megapack/?sh=45f92e0b6113
It gets even worse the larger the scale when you look at look at power consumption swings. In Texas alone there are 9.7 Million Households X 39.2 kWh per day = 380,240,000 kWh/Day or 380 GWh/Day.
You have a 10kWh average swing that's a 97 GWh increase.
https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/TX
You have a 10kWh average swing that's a 97 GWh increase.
https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/TX
Having a basic grasp of these numbers is important to understand what I am going to say next. The wind doesn't always blow and the sun doesn't always shine and sometimes your wind mill gets coated in ice. We are reducing the reliability of the grid the larger the % of renewables.
If we are not investing in reliable back up systems at the same time as we expand renewables what you are seeing today will become the norm. A natural gas turbine plant doesn't shutdown because of weather. Battery back up Megapacks are great but @elonmusk isn't Jesus.
In order to create enough battery back-up needed for Texas alone it is a massive go to the moon type adventure.
$300 per kWh and you'd need 150,000,000 kWh just for today in Texas = $45 Billion just for the systems alone, not counting infrastructure. https://cleantechnica.com/2020/10/05/tesla-megapack-powerpack-powerwall-battery-storage-prices/
$300 per kWh and you'd need 150,000,000 kWh just for today in Texas = $45 Billion just for the systems alone, not counting infrastructure. https://cleantechnica.com/2020/10/05/tesla-megapack-powerpack-powerwall-battery-storage-prices/
Today is not the norm, but its not the norm that constitutes reliability. Our electrical grid is in trouble what's the cause: policy, financial, public opinion, corruption, corp. greed, education, communication? it's not one thing, energy should be something we are all versed in.
