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POWER GRID FAILURES never have a single cause. Grids should be managed conservatively with multiple layers of protection and reserves. Even if there is a single proximate cause, such as a single generator outage, the grid will only fail if those multiple layers have eroded
IN TEXAS, the proximate cause of grid failure was likely the extreme cold temperatures across much of the state. But big freezes are not that infrequent in the state. ERCOT's system operating plan should have been able to cope with the cold. The question is why it failed.
IN TEXAS, the power crisis seems to have blown through multiple layers of system protection, including spinning reserves, peaking power reserves, and demand-response, all of which seem to have proved insufficient, leaving ERCOT no option but massive forced load-shedding.
ERCOT seems to have lost control of the power grid despite forecasts of extreme heating demand for days ahead, which implies something went seriously wrong with either system planning or system operation
ERCOT should have taken timely action to maintain power supplies and grid stability (including frequency control) well ahead of time, including scheduling extra firm generation or agreeing large load reductions. Instead, ERCOT seems to have been overwhelmed by a foreseeable event
Forcible load-shedding covering more than 18% of system-load suggests a catastrophic failure of the planning and/or operations process as events overtook the ability of the system to cope
Power grids should maintain enough of a reserve margin to ensure stable operation at all times including a reasonable worst-case scenario (e.g. the loss of a large generator or transmission line). ERCOT should have had enough generation on stand-by to cope with the cold weather
Either ERCOT was surprised by an unexpected event that was outside its planning system, or there simply wasn't enough generation capacity to cope under a reasonably foreseeable event. Both scenarios suggest the system was not being managed within conservative limits
