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Based on the *process* momentum described in this report, the Afghanistan decision is shaping up to 1) no withdrawal by May 2) open-ended extension on drawdown until conditions on violence reduction and CT are enforced. But this is the process push. What about Biden himself? 1/n https://twitter.com/asfandyarmir/status/1360843742534459394
His personal priors matter a lot. I can see two impulses pulling him in different directions, but really don't know which one might be more dominant as he approaches the decision.
On the one hand, he is a long-time critic of the war, some of its key premises -- like nation-building counterinsurgency, wanting to extricate the US from the war. There is this by Obama on Biden's position: https://twitter.com/and_huh_what/status/1354961940817334273?s=20
Also, @peterbakernyt reported decade+ ago: "Mr. Biden quickly became the most outspoken critic of the expected McChrystal troop request...“He was the bull in the china shop,” said one admiring administration official." https://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/06/world/asia/06reconstruct.html
During the Democratic primaries in 2020, he would proudly reference his opposition to the 2009 Obama surge in Afghanistan. He has also relatively recently *criticized* the argument of staying on for values-based reasons, including protecting rights: https://twitter.com/asfandyarmir/status/1351632459784355840?s=20
On the other hand, he may worry that a foreign policy disaster in Afghanistan will seriously stain his legacy. And he has reason to worry about legacy. He supported the US invasion of Iraq – a decision he came to quickly regret. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/12/us/politics/joe-biden-iraq-war.html
He was also burned by the shepherding of the troop withdrawal position in Iraq on behalf of Obama, which saw the emergence of ISIS. So the issue of terror threat resurgence will mean something to him. https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/06/joe-bidens-iraq-decisions-haunt-him-2020/592669/
Then there are his advisers, who give a strong sense that they are open to diplomacy with an adversary like the Taliban but are deeply uncomfortable with leaving on terms that trigger a human rights crisis or total failure on their watch. https://twitter.com/EenaRuffini/status/1351629879796760577?s=20
In any case, a tough decision for Biden ahead. n/n
