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1. Short review of @tabadlab 31-page report on the future of US-Pakistan relations. It draws on diverse experts & at least a few have experience with Pakistan’s diplomacy/policymaking process & Washington.
https://www.tabadlab.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Pak-Americana-Tabadlab-2021.pdf
https://www.tabadlab.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Pak-Americana-Tabadlab-2021.pdf
2. The report is framed as a Pakistani answer to a @MiddleEastInst-led effort last year that convened US-based experts to consider the future of US-Pakistan relations. See: https://www.mei.edu/publications/seizing-moment-change-pathways-sustainable-us-pakistan-relationship
3. The main thrust of the report is that the US-Pakistan relationship must transition from geopolitical to geoeconomic cooperation, i.e. security/aid → partnership/trade. This reflects statements recently made by @YusufMoeed. See: https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/us-pakistan-relations-biden-era-conversation-moeed-yusuf
4. Routine trade development (outside of trade wars) is not sexy so policy proposals often ignore it. But this report identifies opportunities for the Trade Development Authority of Pakistan (TDAP) to increase exports under the US GSP program.
5. It also calls for increased people-to-people ties, academic exchanges, & cooperation on climate change. South Asia is on the frontlines of climate change’s worst effects & the report views cooperation on the issue as a potential off-ramp for Pakistan-India tensions.
6. The report also identifies the risks countries like Pakistan face amid a deepening US-China rivalry. But Pakistan views itself as a place where Beijing & Washington can find common ground.
7. But I think a disconnect on Afghanistan & regional CT efforts still presents a roadblock to achieving these other initiatives. My personal view is such initiatives should advance in spite of that disconnect, but I am skeptical that the mood in Washington reflects mine.
8. The opportunities identified in the report’s Afghanistan section are great but ignore the elephant in the room: Washington exaggerates Pakistan’s leverage over the Taliban, Islamabad greatly downplays it, & neither is satisfied with the other’s actions.
9. The prevailing view in Washington still sees Afghanistan as a litmus test for how to proceed with Pakistan. This is bad news for Islamabad & one that cannot be mitigated so long as the war continues & Taliban leaders reside inside Pakistan. https://www.lawfareblog.com/what-will-it-take-pakistan-pressure-taliban-cease-fire
10. It would be a mistake for Washington to hold the entire relationship hostage to outcomes in Afghanistan, but ultimately this error will have far more dire consequences for Pakistan. More dialogue is needed & fast.
11. Lastly, the report includes a sentence that serves as a premonition. Ironically, the focus on South Asia (especially Pakistan) is so minimal and Afghanistan-centered that if major shifts occurred in the region, then the US likely wouldn't even know how to respond.
