ERCOT expected to get low capacity factors from wind and solar during winter peak demand. What it didn't expect is >20 GW of outages from thermal (mostly natural gas) power plants.
http://www.ercot.com/gridinfo/resource
#TexasFreeze #RollingBlackouts
Note that ERCOT's worst case scenario, based on 2011 freeze, included 9,509 MW of outages, not the >20,000 MW that's down today. Much deeper freeze this time, and natural gas is scarce given heating needs.
http://www.ercot.com/content/wcm/lists/197378/SARA-FinalWinter2020-2021.pdf
Although ERCOT only expected 269 MW of solar during winter peak demand, we may actually get over 3,000 MW at times today. That's more solar than existed in ERCOT two years ago.
#TexasFreeze #RollingBlackouts
A thread with more info about the ERCOT situation: https://twitter.com/JesseJenkins/status/1361348544154664961?s=20
The freeze is affecting not just natural gas demand but also production https://twitter.com/RichardMeyerDC/status/1361310021368299524?s=20
34 GW of supply offline in ERCOT today https://twitter.com/Sonalcpatel/status/1361357248988143620?s=20
ERCOT forecast 72 GW of peak demand today, but is supplying just 45 GW with over 30 GW generation forced off the system. http://www.ercot.com/news/releases/show/225210
#TexasFreeze #RollingBlackouts
An informative update thread here. Bottom line: 29 GW of thermal capacity (likely mostly natural gas) is still offline, and wind and solar are producing near or above expectations for a winter peak event. https://twitter.com/JesseJenkins/status/1361414314154893314?s=20
Texas nuclear plants (Comanche Peak and South Texas) are operating at 100%. Thus, the 30+ GW outages ERCOT reported today are mostly fossil fuel plants.
https://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc-collections/event-status/reactor-status/ps.html
A correction regarding nuclear during the Texas blackouts https://twitter.com/cohan_ds/status/1361550144253091840
Confirmation from NRC that one of the four nuclear units in Texas did go down yesterday.
https://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc-collections/event-status/reactor-status/ps.html
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