Brexit “vaccine victory”. EU-UK “vaccine war”. Intra-EU squabbling. We can learn something vital. Existential. Not about vaccines. Nor pandemics. And not what Brexiters or “I-like-the-EU-but-feel-I-must-criticise-it-now” commentators claim. Join me, on a short journey & long/1.

. @guyverhofstadt criticises the EU’s vaccine policy & its execution, launching a barely veiled, ferocious, personal attack on @vonderleyen. Notably, however, he concludes the strategic answer is much greater central EU power, a “Health Union”. /2. https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1360554313802788865?s=21

. @quatremer defends the EU approach in an opinion piece in @guardian, much derided by @robertshrimsley (often sympathetic to the EU), & @giselastuart (a co-chair of Vote Leave), among many others. /3.

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/commentisfree/2021/feb/14/brexit-britain-eu-covid-vaccination-fiasco?__twitter_impression=true

One of the key arguments goes to the heart (maybe in a way the author didn’t intend) of why the EU exists. It amounts to: “we held the EU together, without undue squabbles, so that’s good”. To which the obvious retort would be: “if the EU can’t deliver why hold it together?”/4.

The author would perhaps - he’ll speak for himself - reply it’s a peace project (centuries of European conflict etc), brings great economic benefits to Europeans through its single market & weight in the world, & does good work with overseas aid. /5.

All that’s true, to an extent at least, as far as it goes. And it’s what Europeans (pro-EU at least) like to tell themselves. Their founding myth.

And, like many myths, there’s a deeper connection to reality. Perhaps, however, one which is uncomfortable for the believers. /6.

In the European case, the discomfort stems from the fact, almost universally ignored in decades of political discourse, that the EU, far from being a European project, is an American one. /7.

A central pillar, along with NATO, of the US power structure which has sustained all of us - even, apparently paradoxically, many of its most implacable opponents - for over 75 years. Whether we like it or not. And some don’t. /8.

The Cold War view of many, particularly on the left, that the European Community was simply an American institution designed to spread capitalist power, to US advantage, & to contain the USSR, is far closer to the truth than the European mythologisers dare admit. /9.

But it’s also only partly right.

Yes, basic to the US’s Soviet & global strategy was containment rather than confrontation & defeat of the USSR. A calculation based on how to get maximum - & sufficient - benefit for minimum cost in treasure, blood & political capital. /10.

Yes, the US was (& is) systematically propagating an economic model it favours, intended to deliver maximum American advantage, albeit also in promotion & maintenance of widespread benefits for others. /11.

But, more fundamentally, by 1945 the US was long since the only entity - country or “empire” - remotely capable of imposing order on a highly technologically interconnected, ever more globalised world. /12.

And of avoiding a repeat of the three decades’ chaos - with no effective, pre-eminent global power, & not even a tiny fraction of what would be needed for collective “world government” - which the world had just experienced. /13.

NATO, first, then the European Coal and Steel Community & all that followed, were key parts of the design. /14.

(There are counterparts elsewhere, notably Asia, similarly important, although not as highly integrated as in Europe. And, of course, there are the global institutions, all of which would have fallen apart, & still would, without the US leading them). /15.

The truth of this, by the way, doesn’t rely on the US directly designing or running - even from behind the scenes - the European & transatlantic institutions. Even though there has always, in fact, been an element of that (far more than just an element in the case of NATO). /16.

Nor does it depend on there being no tension between US & EU/ European governments or institutions. No one said this was easy. /17.

So, when we try to keep the EU together even, maybe especially, when it’s making errors, the importance doesn’t derive from a “European ideal”, despite there being something in it & some of us no doubt feeling affinity with that. /18.

Its Alpha & Omega is American world leadership. For which the essential precondition is overwhelming power - military & economic. The two go hand in hand. /19.

Our prosperity & security - for those countries fortunate enough to benefit, including many supposed opponents of the US - absolutely depend on it.

There’s no remotely credible alternative in any remotely foreseeable timescale. /20.

Fantasies can be fun. Not for those upon whose power our survival depends. Nor for those who understand that relationship.

The collapse of the EU (or NATO) would be second only to the collapse of the USA itself in precipitating devastating destruction. /21.

“Second”, because the effects would most likely be less immediate. But they’d happen soon enough. They’d be similarly fatal. /22.

Brexiters, dunderheaded German neo-Nazis posing as the voice of the respectable bourgeoisie, French neo-fascist nationalists, Orbanites, Putinists, & others, call for & attempt to catalyse the disintegration of the EU. /23.

In doing so, that geopolitical disaster - for all of us living under US protection - is what they advocate. /24.

Apart, perhaps, from the Putins and Lavrovs of this world, they don’t realise it. Any more than detached-from-reality European idealists understand their project is American &, as a fundamental part of the US power system, global. /25.

They do, however, despise the America - personified by the likes of Eisenhower, Marshall, Kennan & successors - which created & perpetuated the system. /26.

They revel in the erosion of US & Allied power resulting, in substantial part, from the exponential increase in China’s economic output over the last 40 years & the inadequate policy response. /27.

They hope it’s the end. It isn’t & doesn’t have to be. Unless, equally blind & inadequate, with far less excuse, those privileged enough to be in a position to make a difference, repeat errors similar to those of the 1920s & 30s & let them have their way. Then it will be. /28.

To be sure, the Trumpians pretend to put “America First” & “Make America Great Again”. /29.

Their strategy, if their wild, incoherent imaginings can be so dignified, would at best turn the USA into a semi-autarchic fortress & let the rest of the world go hang. It wouldn’t be long before they, & America with them, were hanging by the noose they themselves created. /30.

Trumpian or not, the “movement’s” leaders - overwhelmingly at once combining privilege, ignorance, & emotional deprivation - for the most part have no concept of the horrific, probably terminal, chaotic destruction the success of their political rampage would bring. /31.

Some of them are sufficiently socio- & psychopathic that, in any case, they wouldn’t care.

This is where the reflexively pro-EU idealists are far closer to understanding existentially vital, current reality than “Eurosceptics”, Europhobes, “don’t knows” & the apathetic. /32.

They powerfully sense a key truth. There’s no alternative to the EU. @guyverhofstadt, for all his criticism of one, extremely important EU policy, understands that. So does @quatremer.

If the EU fails, disaster beckons. Not just for Europe. /33.

So, when mistakes are made, when crises occur, you work hard & fast to learn from them. You course correct (that’s the “alternative”: improvements). /34.

And you put up powerful defences against anyone & everyone trying to use the moment of weakness to undermine the EU power edifice. /35.

The way the course corrections & defence are done can often be poor. Naturally, success is by no means guaranteed. Even when optimally done, it’s frequently not a pretty sight. Naked power, in pursuit of the maintenance of dominant power, rarely is. /36.

The alternative - in the specific context of the 75 year old reality in which all of us have subsisted: the indispensability of American global power & leadership - is dramatically worse. For everyone. /37.

The EU vaccine issue will be resolved. With painful crunching of gears, no doubt. /38.

The geopolitical hoodlums, with a supporting chorus drawn from wherever they can find one, will leap up & down, disparage & crow. And attack, with all means at their disposal. They’re as dangerous & vicious as the brown-shirted vandals of Weimar. /39.

The hard work of keeping the show on the road will fall to those in Washington DC (thankfully, as of 20 January we can say that again), in EU capitals, & like minded leaders & societies around the world. /40.

. @JoeBiden @ABlinken, their colleagues & allies, know the maintenance & effective functioning of the American global alliance, the EU alongside others at its core, is what stands between us & destruction.

Like it or not.

Pandemic or no pandemic.

Brexit or no Brexit. /41. End