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This feels under-reported:*All 32 million* priority groups in the UK are set to be vaccinated *by Easter*.
That's everyone over 50 or vulnerable.
That's one month earlier than the govt say. The maths is simple. 1/
…we are vaccinating 3 million people a week (for the past two weeks now). There's no reason for that rate to decline.
If anything, the UK likely has far more supply than it is administering… 2/ https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2021/01/uk-rolling-out-its-vaccines-only-half-speed-it-receiving-supplies
If anything, the UK likely has far more supply than it is administering… 2/ https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2021/01/uk-rolling-out-its-vaccines-only-half-speed-it-receiving-supplies
…if we continue to vaccinate at 3m/week, that means 21m doses over the next 7 weeks, by Apr 4: Easter Sunday.
The UK will start second doses in March, but *not very many of them*, as we didn't give many doses in Dec.
There are only 2M~ 2nd doses to give by Apr 4… 3/
The UK will start second doses in March, but *not very many of them*, as we didn't give many doses in Dec.
There are only 2M~ 2nd doses to give by Apr 4… 3/
…that means the UK should deliver 19M first doses (21M-2M) by Apr 4.
There are only 17M people in the remaining priority groups.
Once these groups are vaccinated - add 2-3 weeks for immunity to kick in - the number of deaths and hospitalisations should fall precipitously… 4/
There are only 17M people in the remaining priority groups.
Once these groups are vaccinated - add 2-3 weeks for immunity to kick in - the number of deaths and hospitalisations should fall precipitously… 4/
…it is hard to see why restrictions of any significance should continue after Apr if so.
The key point is that the govt's target for remaining groups should be *1 April, not 1 May*.
(We're on pace for Mar 28.)
The govt's v slow May deadline is being accepted too readily. …5/
The key point is that the govt's target for remaining groups should be *1 April, not 1 May*.
(We're on pace for Mar 28.)
The govt's v slow May deadline is being accepted too readily. …5/
…the UK's vaccine rollout will need to speed up by late April or first doses will grind to a halt.
Best case: If the UK's pace increases from 3 to 5 million/week, as Blair has called for, the UK could plausibly vaccinate every adult by mid-May. https://www.newstatesman.com/science-tech/coronavirus/2021/02/how-uk-could-vaccinate-every-adult-mid-may-and-end-lockdown …6/
Best case: If the UK's pace increases from 3 to 5 million/week, as Blair has called for, the UK could plausibly vaccinate every adult by mid-May. https://www.newstatesman.com/science-tech/coronavirus/2021/02/how-uk-could-vaccinate-every-adult-mid-may-and-end-lockdown …6/
…finally, the rollout is so rapid because the UK choose to delay doses over 12 weeks.
Here's why that decision - advanced by a long-established scientific committee, not politicians - always made sense. From late Jan: https://www.newstatesman.com/science-tech/coronavirus/2021/01/could-uk-s-covid-19-vaccine-approach-become-global-standard … 7/7
Here's why that decision - advanced by a long-established scientific committee, not politicians - always made sense. From late Jan: https://www.newstatesman.com/science-tech/coronavirus/2021/01/could-uk-s-covid-19-vaccine-approach-become-global-standard … 7/7
