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I dug into just what the math of “vaccinating everyone by September”means for Canada and it will require consistent deliveries and a strong effort by the provinces.
A thread of probably too many tweets. https://twitter.com/nationalpost/status/1360775950162657282
A thread of probably too many tweets. https://twitter.com/nationalpost/status/1360775950162657282
There are 38 million Canadians, but seven million of us are under 16 and the existing vaccines aren’t approved for them, so that’s 31 million.
By April, we should have three million people vaccinated. So by then there would be 28 million to go.
By April, we should have three million people vaccinated. So by then there would be 28 million to go.
The vaccine hesitant are hard to figure, but about 10 per cent of people in polls say they won’t take the shot.
So of the remaining 28 million, there are 2.8 million who won’t take it. I feel hesitancy will fall, so let’s say 2 million.
That leaves 26 million Canadians needing two doses, so 52 million doses.
That leaves 26 million Canadians needing two doses, so 52 million doses.
The Liberals are expecting 84 million doses in that time frame, if that holds, doses delivered to Canada won’t be the issue it will be how many we get into arms.
To get 52 million doses administered between April 1 and Sept 30 means administering two million doses per week every week.
If we do less than two million a week, than we have to do more than two million in following weeks that’s an aggressive schedule.
Pfizer and Moderna have pledged to more than meet that demand. There are three more candidates in regulatory review that could give Canada even more doses.
I don’t see how we would not have enough to make the September deadline.
I don’t see how we would not have enough to make the September deadline.
The idea it could be 2022 or beyond just doesn’t hold up for me.
I don’t think the question is really will the government have enough vaccines by September; it’s will they be in arms.
And also how far behind the rest of the world will September leave us.
And also how far behind the rest of the world will September leave us.
