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#Kosovo parliamentary election, with anti-establishment Vetëvendosje (VV) obtaining about 50% of the vote, marks a sea change. Here's a quick and inexact (temp results) table showing how the Feb 2021 results compare to Oct 2019.
Some interesting points to note (thread):
Some interesting points to note (thread):
Winners: Albin Kurti's Vetevendosje are the very clear winners. As is Vjosa Osmani, who ran with VV. No doubt, this is a vote for change. All eyes out on how big a majority VV will have. Will they reach an agreement with minorities? Also, most diaspora votes expected to go to VV.
Losers: the old elites. Veseli, Thaci, Haradinaj... & those who supported them. LDK paid the price for snubbing Vjosa Osmani in 2020.
Women took note: female voters expressed a clear preference for VV, voting for LDK & others in much lesser numbers. (green: men; purple: women)
Women took note: female voters expressed a clear preference for VV, voting for LDK & others in much lesser numbers. (green: men; purple: women)
Diaspora vote: out-of-country vote is getting more relevant at every (short) electoral cycle. Expected to favour VV. Over 43k vote packages (80-90k votes) were received, count to start soon. Still, many expats travelled back to KS to vote: real commitment. https://prishtinainsight.com/kosovars-return-home-to-vote/
Our @BiEPAG survey (fieldwork: Oct 2020) shows that, among WB respondents, Kosovars were most positive about the way their country regulates out-of-country vote for the mere reason that it exists at all. Elites often not keen to facilitate it. V Imp topic deserving of more attn.
Electoral democracy: procedures have improved a LOT in Kosovo, and it shows. The work of the Central Electoral Commission (CEC) is not perfect, but by all accounts much improved. 2019 elex were already considered free & fair by most international observers.
Another factor enhancing checks and balances is the presence of an independent Constitutional Court, which does not dance to the tune of the ruling political elites - in contrast to what happens in many SEE countries.
Even more importantly, it's clear that in Kosovo there is critical mass - a precondition for pluralism. This is reflected in the turnout: slightly up in spite of Covid19, restrictions to travel for diaspora members, and icy weather.
In the Western Balkans, Kosovans are the second most likely (after Montenegrins) to believe that change can come through elections. The slight ambivalence likely comes from the fact that the 1st gov of change lasted only 50 days. Will this one last longer? https://biepag.eu/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/Elections-No-longer-voting-for-the-devil-you-know.pdf
There are many bumps in the road, but VV's strong showing suggests so. One of these 'bumps' for VV consists in the Serbian List, which might be emboldened by the votes from the Bosniak minority (possible alliance) & therefore have enough votes to hamper some moves.
Much will depend on the next President: after Thaci's resignation last Nov, Vjosa Osmani is now the caretaker. Parliament elects the President. A vote is due by May. Will Vjosa be reconfirmed? Even if so, will the Kurti-Osmani duo be all smooth sailing?
Among the unknowns, there is the dialogue w/ Serbia. Not among VV's priorities. Kurti's intransigent stance is well known. President's role will be important in attempts to resume dialogue but also smooth out rels with EU and US (anti-Western sentiment never so high in KS)
VV's stated priorities are: economic recovery, managing the pandemic, reforms in health and education, anti-corruption. Will they deliver? The aim is so high that the risk of disappointment looms large. But EU should recognise the real potential for reform and seize it. @eu_eeas
So, CHANGE has come to Kosovo. Will it be real & long-lasting? As @donikaemini put it, are we bringing down state capture, or are we only changing the capturer?
More in this @SEESOX @BiEPAG videocast w/ @fbieber @vujoilic @JoMarovic @Falatar2018
ends/
More in this @SEESOX @BiEPAG videocast w/ @fbieber @vujoilic @JoMarovic @Falatar2018
ends/
Two additions/clarifications: on the Kosovo Constitutional Court - certainly not without its controversies - read this interesting thread incl. @mprelec @AndreaCapussela @DavideDenti (incidentally, judicial vetting is very much a current discussion) https://twitter.com/mprelec/status/1361304646141304832
