Read on Twitter
/THREAD/Next up in my #2021PlayerBreakdowns Series is:
Sandy Alcantara, SP
Miami #Marlins
25 years old
Drafted: N/A, Int’l FA (STL)
Let’s get started...
2020 Stat Line:
7 G
42 IP
3-2
3.00 ERA
1.19 WHIP
3.72 FIP
4.04 xFIP
4.39 SIERA
22.7 K%
8.7 BB%
14.0 K-BB%
.224 AVG
.274 BABIP
63.9% LOB
0.86 HR/9
7 G
42 IP
3-2
3.00 ERA
1.19 WHIP
3.72 FIP
4.04 xFIP
4.39 SIERA
22.7 K%
8.7 BB%
14.0 K-BB%
.224 AVG
.274 BABIP
63.9% LOB
0.86 HR/9
Alcantara came in 2020 fresh off of his first All-Star season, posting a 2.73 ERA over his last 10 games (3.88 ERA overall)
In 2019 he led Miami w/ 32 starts & 197.1 IP on the back of a five pitch repertoire led by his sinker.
Contact management was the key.
In 2019 he led Miami w/ 32 starts & 197.1 IP on the back of a five pitch repertoire led by his sinker.
Contact management was the key.
The issue?
Alcantara was the only NL SP (who qualified) w/ a K rate (18.0%) & BB rate (9.7%) at least 1/2 standard deviation worse than MLB avg.
Luckily superior contact management led to 23 inning ending DPs in 2019.
That will get you out of a jam.
Alcantara was the only NL SP (who qualified) w/ a K rate (18.0%) & BB rate (9.7%) at least 1/2 standard deviation worse than MLB avg.
Luckily superior contact management led to 23 inning ending DPs in 2019.
That will get you out of a jam.
Alcantara even received a new tattoo that offseason on his left arm:
“6 + 4 + 3 = 2”
1.) That is pretty badass
2.) He understands what he is doing & why
But even if going deep into games is useful, relying soley on DPs is dangerous.
“6 + 4 + 3 = 2”
1.) That is pretty badass
2.) He understands what he is doing & why
But even if going deep into games is useful, relying soley on DPs is dangerous.
Alcantara had work to do if he was to be successful long term.
He answered the call by:
QS in 6 out of his 7 starts in 2020
Improved K% & BB%
Improved velocity
So let’s review his workload in 2020 to see what changes were made & what the future may look like.
He answered the call by:
QS in 6 out of his 7 starts in 2020 Improved K% & BB% Improved velocitySo let’s review his workload in 2020 to see what changes were made & what the future may look like.
Plate Discipline results from 2020:
SwStr: 10.4%
O-Swing: 31.5%
Z-Swing: 69.0%
O-Contact: 61.7%
Z-Contact: 87.8%
F-Strike: 61.0%
Zone: 44.9%
Alcantara increased his Zone% to well above MLB avg while maintaining otherwise lackluster discipline metrics.
SwStr: 10.4%
O-Swing: 31.5%
Z-Swing: 69.0%
O-Contact: 61.7%
Z-Contact: 87.8%
F-Strike: 61.0%
Zone: 44.9%
Alcantara increased his Zone% to well above MLB avg while maintaining otherwise lackluster discipline metrics.
So where did the increase in K% come from?
SwStr%
0.4
O-Swing% 2.1
CallStr%
0.4
Foul% 0.5
Zone% 3.3
Z-Contact% 0.7
Swing% 0.5
K% 22.4 vs deserved K% 20.4
Read between the lines here & that K% increase is starting to look like a mirage.
SwStr%
0.4O-Swing%
2.1CallStr%
0.4Foul%
0.5Zone%
3.3Z-Contact%
0.7Swing%
0.5K% 22.4 vs deserved K% 20.4
Read between the lines here & that K% increase is starting to look like a mirage.
So even though the modest K% increase is not exactly “sticky,” that does not make the results worse.
But it does make them unique.
As mentioned before, Sandy’s Zone% was well above avg & that is where his success came from.
Which is weird... (See below)
But it does make them unique.
As mentioned before, Sandy’s Zone% was well above avg & that is where his success came from.
Which is weird... (See below)
Normally a SP wants to live in the shadow w/ the goal of getting hitters to chase.
Alcantara did the opposite, w/ Trevor Bauer being the only other SP w/ more success in the heart than the shadow.
But Bauer has elite spin whereas Sandy simply does not.
So whats up?
Alcantara did the opposite, w/ Trevor Bauer being the only other SP w/ more success in the heart than the shadow.
But Bauer has elite spin whereas Sandy simply does not.
So whats up?
How about velocity?
2018: 95.5 mph
2019: 95.6 mph
2020: 96.8 mph
Alcantara has seen a steady climb in FB velocity (91st percentile)
But velo is nothing if you don’t know what to do w/ it.
Which is a great segway to talk about his pitch arsenal.
2018: 95.5 mph
2019: 95.6 mph
2020: 96.8 mph
Alcantara has seen a steady climb in FB velocity (91st percentile)
But velo is nothing if you don’t know what to do w/ it.
Which is a great segway to talk about his pitch arsenal.
Alcantara has a solid 5-pitch arsenal & he is comfortable throwing all of them in the zone.
In fact he was 16th in MLB in that regard.
Sandy likes to throw breaking/offspeed in the zone to force hitters to respect them & not sit on his 4-seam/sinker.
In fact he was 16th in MLB in that regard.
Sandy likes to throw breaking/offspeed in the zone to force hitters to respect them & not sit on his 4-seam/sinker.
Alcantara’s primary weapon is his sinker (89% spin efficiency)
K%: 10.4
wRC+: 64
GB%: 68.1
O-Swing%: 27.0
Z-Swing%: 69.7
Z-Contact%: 90.2
SwStr%: 7.8
Zone%: 56.9
pVAL: 7.7
Very effective in-zone weapon that is a GB machine w/ out of zone potential.
K%: 10.4
wRC+: 64
GB%: 68.1
O-Swing%: 27.0
Z-Swing%: 69.7
Z-Contact%: 90.2
SwStr%: 7.8
Zone%: 56.9
pVAL: 7.7
Very effective in-zone weapon that is a GB machine w/ out of zone potential.
The sinker has 21.5” of drop, which is fine, but carries 16.9” of horizontal break (29th in MLB).
It’s also pairs nicely w/ his 4-seam & changeup due to identical spin based movement.
But as they approach the hitter they deviate, giving the hitter less time to react.
It’s also pairs nicely w/ his 4-seam & changeup due to identical spin based movement.
But as they approach the hitter they deviate, giving the hitter less time to react.
That horizontal movement from both the sinker (99 max velo) & changeup (93 max velo) could be described as seam shifted wake. ( https://theathletic.com/2337324/2021/01/22/seam-shifted-wake-sleeper-pitchers/)
But either way they have deceptive qualities w/ potential for more swing & miss.
Lets take a closer look at that changeup...
But either way they have deceptive qualities w/ potential for more swing & miss.
Lets take a closer look at that changeup...
87% Spin Efficiency
K%: 37.5
wRC+: 123
GB%: 50.0
O-Swing%: 39.4
Z-Swing%: 66.7
Z-Contact%: 86.4
SwStr%: 19.7
Zone%: 50.0
pVAL: -0.8
THIS is the pitch folks.
K%: 37.5
wRC+: 123
GB%: 50.0
O-Swing%: 39.4
Z-Swing%: 66.7
Z-Contact%: 86.4
SwStr%: 19.7
Zone%: 50.0
pVAL: -0.8
THIS is the pitch folks.
Alcantara’s sinker is meant for inducing weak contact at its core, but the changeup could unlock another level.
Overall results are not as impressive due to misuse.
If you have a 39.4% O-Swing & 19.7 SwStr%, how about dropping the Zone% from 50%?
They ‘want’ to swing at it.
Overall results are not as impressive due to misuse.
If you have a 39.4% O-Swing & 19.7 SwStr%, how about dropping the Zone% from 50%?
They ‘want’ to swing at it.
There is great potential for K% increase by taking advantage of a chase pitch that is already there.
Alcantara is mostly high/inside & low/away. Which is fairly textbook.
But there is another flaw w/ his current plan to “throw any pitch for a strike in any count.”
He doesn’t.
Alcantara is mostly high/inside & low/away. Which is fairly textbook.
But there is another flaw w/ his current plan to “throw any pitch for a strike in any count.”
He doesn’t.
If he take a look at the chart above, you will notice Sandy will throw any pitch in any count.
But...if the hitter is ahead in the count a sinker becomes all but guaranteed.
Once Alcantara is ahead, a 4-seam/slider combo seems to take over.
Its never good to be predictable.
But...if the hitter is ahead in the count a sinker becomes all but guaranteed.
Once Alcantara is ahead, a 4-seam/slider combo seems to take over.
Its never good to be predictable.
Alcantara needs to focus on consistency & fine tuning his pitch mix/location.
Oh, is that all Matt?
It sounds like an overhaul. But its not. The base is there for someone who continues to show improvement every year.
FIP: 6.04, 4.75, 4.55, 3.71
WHIP: 1.89, 1.41, 1.32, 1.19
Oh, is that all Matt?
It sounds like an overhaul. But its not. The base is there for someone who continues to show improvement every year.
FIP: 6.04, 4.75, 4.55, 3.71
WHIP: 1.89, 1.41, 1.32, 1.19
It’s important to note Alcantara only had 42ip due to Covid issues.
After winning OD vs PHL (6.2 1er 7k) he did not pitch again until Aug 30th (4ip 8r 5er) vs TB
But finished w/ a 2.30 era w/ 30k over 32.1 after that first game back, winning 4 of 5.
Small, but promising sample
After winning OD vs PHL (6.2 1er 7k) he did not pitch again until Aug 30th (4ip 8r 5er) vs TB
But finished w/ a 2.30 era w/ 30k over 32.1 after that first game back, winning 4 of 5.
Small, but promising sample
Cold water alert 
I just made a road map for how Alcantara could take the next step. But in reality one can’t expect that.
For now he is a high IP GB pitcher w/ a K% that seems to be a mirage.
That is still a very good pitcher, but the difference between a SP2 & a SP4.
I just made a road map for how Alcantara could take the next step. But in reality one can’t expect that.
For now he is a high IP GB pitcher w/ a K% that seems to be a mirage.
That is still a very good pitcher, but the difference between a SP2 & a SP4.
Recap:
K% jump likely a fluke
Great sinker, deceptive change
High IP/QS machine
GB/Contact management 
Potential for real K% w/ Zone% adj
Boring but safe floor
Predictability may hold him back
K% jump likely a fluke Great sinker, deceptive change High IP/QS machine GB/Contact management Potential for real K% w/ Zone% adj Boring but safe floor Predictability may hold him back
Alcantara is currently being drafted as the SP43 in NFBC w/ an ADP of 139.
Great price if you see Savant’s velo/movement comps like Woodruff & Castillo. (Mayne not when you also see Urena/Foltynewicz)
Bottom line: He is a high IP GB pitcher w/ a nice floor & intriguing ceiling
Great price if you see Savant’s velo/movement comps like Woodruff & Castillo. (Mayne not when you also see Urena/Foltynewicz)
Bottom line: He is a high IP GB pitcher w/ a nice floor & intriguing ceiling
What to expect from Sandy Alcantara in 2021:
180 IP
3.82 ERA
1.21 WHIP
21.0% K Rate
8.5% BB Rate
There is plenty to like about Alcantara, but also plenty of roadblocks in his way of breaking out.
I am on board, but banking more on his solid floor than ceiling. So should you.
180 IP
3.82 ERA
1.21 WHIP
21.0% K Rate
8.5% BB Rate
There is plenty to like about Alcantara, but also plenty of roadblocks in his way of breaking out.
I am on board, but banking more on his solid floor than ceiling. So should you.
@Marlins @fishstripes @MarlinManiac @J_McPherson1126 @DuseReport @FernandezAndreC @CraigMish @jorgeebro @marlinsminors
There is an entire thread on Sandy Alcantara above, but here is a link to the beginning: https://twitter.com/mattwi77iams/status/1361276360669421569
There is an entire thread on Sandy Alcantara above, but here is a link to the beginning: https://twitter.com/mattwi77iams/status/1361276360669421569
