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Thank you to @darrenadam for inviting me onto his @LBC show to discuss how and when we should relax Covid-19 lock down restrictions in the UK. My view is that we should be guided by data on case numbers, hospitalisations and deaths; and lift restrictions cautiously. 1/5
There are reasons to be positive about the future. Vaccination numbers are increasing daily with over 15M people now vaccinated against Covid-19, and administration of second vaccine doses due to start soon, as well as extension of vaccination to younger age groups. 2/5
A large number of people also have some natural immunity to Covid-19 because of previous infection. Last year's experience also shows that there is a seasonal effect on case numbers. Hence, we can be optimistic about seeing a decline in Covid-19 case numbers in the summer. 3/5
We need though to avoid lifting restrictions too quickly and should do so in a gradual manner starting with opening up schools, and then opening up other sectors of the economy and society to avoid an increase in cases, hospitalisations and deaths in the Spring. 4/5
Finally, we need to be fully prepared for a potential increase in Covid-19 cases in the Autumn and Winter of 2021. This means ensuring that a high proportion of adults have had two doses of vaccine, and that we have a fully functional test and trace system in place by then. 5/5
