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After General Raziq’s death at the hands of a Taliban infiltrator, his brother, Gen. Tadeen Khan, was made a general overnight and took over as police chief but his lack of military experience meant he was largely disconnected and absent from his duties. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/15/world/asia/the-taliban-close-in-on-afghan-cities-pushing-the-country-to-the-brink.html?smid=tw-share
As his officers taxed and abused their residents with little oversight, the Taliban forged alliances with local tribal leadership and paid low-level police officers to abandon their posts before their fall offensive, local and provincial officials said.
During an offensive in the fall, the Taliban took swaths of territory and then mostly held their ground despite attempts by the Afghan security forces and U.S. airstrikes to dislodge them.
Taliban commanders told tribal officials in the district that the insurgent group deliberately stopped short of taking Panjwai, said Haji Mahmood Noor, the district’s mayor, because they were told to wait and see how the next phase of peace negotiations played out.
The Taliban’s aim is to force the Afghan govt into complying with their terms of peace. Taliban leaders have demanded the release of around 7,000 more prisoners & the establishment of an interim government, two requests that Pres Ghani, has so far refused.
“The Taliban seem to believe that applying this pressure, staging their fighters to potentially strike Kandahar and other urban centers, will pressure the U.S. to withdraw, or else,” Mr. Watkins said. “The strategic logic might have the opposite effect.”
If the Biden administration honors the withdrawal date, officials fear the TB could overwhelm what’s left of AFG security forces & take control of major cities like Kandahar in a push for a complete military victory or a broad surrender by the AFG govt in the ongoing negotiations
But if the United States delays its withdrawal deadline, as a congressionally appointed panel recommended on Feb. 3, the Taliban would most likely consider the 2020 deal with the United States void, which could lead to renewed attacks on American and NATO troops...
and potentially drawing the United States deeper into the war to defend Afghan forces, whom the Taliban could still retaliate vigorously against.
“The threat of Taliban military victories, especially in an area as symbolic and strategic as Kandahar, makes it difficult for the Biden administration to swallow the risks of finalizing a troop withdrawal,” said @and_huh_what , a senior analyst on Afghanistan for the IICG.
“Pulling out might be politically impossible if Kandahar was on the nightly news.”
To prepare for a possible multipronged attack should the United States stay beyond the May 1 deadline, the Pentagon has requested additional military options — including an increase of U.S. troops or a commitment of more air support from CENTCOM.
