Broken clocks are right twice a day and Jeremy Granthams perma bear calls are right once a cycle. A timeline and cautionary lesson for investors:

2010: Grantham sells stocks out of the financial crisis, saying stocks are now overvalued: https://www.cnbc.com/id/40131748 

2014: We’re in a stock bubble and it will end badly in 2016: https://www.thinkadvisor.com/2014/05/04/grantham-big-stock-bubble-will-end-badly-in-2016/

2018: The market is a bubble and will soon crash 50%: https://www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/b1743d0x0ms3yx/why-is-no-one-listening-to-jeremy-grantham

June 2020: Most stocks are overvalued so we sold >half of our equities in the 2nd quarter. Equities will do poorly if we don’t quickly eliminate the virus: https://www.gmo.com/americas/research-library/1q-2020-gmo-quarterly-letter/

Oct 2020: We are in a bubble. Everything is overpriced: https://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2020/10/22/jeremy-grantham-the-market-bubble-will-burst-in-weeks-or-months

January 2021: We are in a fully-fledged epic bubble featuring extreme overvaluation: https://www.gmo.com/americas/research-library/waiting-for-the-last-dance/

For a decade Grantham has fixated on the fact that US margins are higher than long term averages, and he expects that to mean revert. Early in the cycle multiples were high bc earnings were depressed. Then they were high on CAPE. Then they were just high.

Somehow he still does not seem to realize that margins are structurally higher than history bc of offshoring labor, automation, and the fact that Google, Microsoft, and Apple will always earn higher margins than commodities, manufacturers, and banks that once dominated indices.

As an observer - it seems that despite being wrong for more than a decade, Grantham continues to dig in or blame the fed rather than re-evaluate why he was wrong.

What a lesson of caution for all investors - stay humble and try to learn from mistakes rather than compound them.

Despite “nailing” two past bubbles as Grantham loves reminding folks, his flagship fund returns have been anemic as his investors have been chronically underweight innovation and overweight emerging market banks, energy, and manufacturing companies... he still manages $65bn