Some thoughts on why gas turbines and engines hate the cold as much as I do. Combustion is air + fuel, so most people think making a fire should combat the cold, but the problems stem from gas supply & winterization issues. ERCOT is normally at peak in the summer months. /1

Overall we just don’t design for extreme cold. Plants are outside. A minor issue is instrument lines, you might have fuel pressure but your instrument tubing is 3/4” and frozen solid so your control system thinks you have a leak. This becomes a major issue when it shuts down. /2

Moisture during the cold is also horrendous, inlet air filtration here in the south isn’t normally built for icing up or preventing ice into the turbine which is bad. I’ve all around makes things quite hard to deal with. /3

Colder air is normally great for engines, more mass flow with dense air so you can get more power. Engines rated at 60F for nameplate and degrade heavily at high temps. I hate the cold though, troubleshooting chattering my teeth in the sleet is just horrible stuff. /4

Auxiliary systems are a big failure point, I’ve had to deal with oil so cold it won’t flow. Electrical systems are sometimes only good to 32F. Fuel is also a major item, any freezing of fuel supply kills your machine & it might be too cold to restart. Fuel gas is also scarce. /5

The gas supply is bad right now. Gas producers have similar engine issues and cryogenic plants have engines & heat exchangers that aren’t designed for this cold. Any trips they have reduced gas supply and further stresses the fuel demand for generation. Homes also want fuel. /6

So you have homes & power gen demanding fuel and your supply is limited. Overall not a great day for power prices and electrical stability. Hard to plan for here in Texas but we will all have to manage the next few days. //

Thermal plant issues seem to be confirmed with generation offline. Industrial customers are very incentivized to shut down today. If you own a plant and have hedged power you’re going to make more money staying at home and selling your power use to the grid. https://twitter.com/jessejenkins/status/1361348544154664961