Read on Twitter
"If negotiating a post-Donald-Trump world has been a disorienting experience for Republicans around the country, it is especially acute in NC, a state that has become a polarized, and nearly deadlocked, partisan battleground."
However...1/2 https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/14/us/politics/lara-trump-north-carolina.html #ncpol #ncsen
However...1/2 https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/14/us/politics/lara-trump-north-carolina.html #ncpol #ncsen
2/2:
“'The G.O.P. base is getting smaller,' said Paul Shumaker, a veteran party strategist in Raleigh."
#ncpol #ncsen https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/14/us/politics/lara-trump-north-carolina.html
“'The G.O.P. base is getting smaller,' said Paul Shumaker, a veteran party strategist in Raleigh."
#ncpol #ncsen https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/14/us/politics/lara-trump-north-carolina.html
Granted, the GOP base is composed of both registered Republicans + registered unaffiliated voters who vote GOP.
But since November, the greatest # of defections from party registration has been among registered Republicans in NC's 7M voters (data courtesy of @NCSBE):
But since November, the greatest # of defections from party registration has been among registered Republicans in NC's 7M voters (data courtesy of @NCSBE):
From Nov. 7, 2020 through yesterday (2-13-21), the majority of NC voters who have switched parties has been among formerly registered Republicans.
20K+ registered Republican voters have left the GOP affiliation, with 87% going to 'unaffiliated' party registration status #ncpol
20K+ registered Republican voters have left the GOP affiliation, with 87% going to 'unaffiliated' party registration status #ncpol
Next are those who were unaffiliated in Nov and now have picked a party (16K):
Unaffiliated who went GOP: 52%
Unaffiliated who went Democratic: 48%
13K reg Democrats switched, with 65% going unaffiliated & 35% going reg Republican
#ncpol #ncgop #ncdem
Unaffiliated who went GOP: 52%
Unaffiliated who went Democratic: 48%
13K reg Democrats switched, with 65% going unaffiliated & 35% going reg Republican
#ncpol #ncgop #ncdem
In looking just at registered Republican to unaffiliated party switchers:
82% of them are White non-Hispanic
35% are Boomers
29% GenXers
25% Millennials
31% from surrounding suburban counties
28% from urban suburbs
26% from central cities
14% from rural counties
#ncpol
82% of them are White non-Hispanic
35% are Boomers
29% GenXers
25% Millennials
31% from surrounding suburban counties
28% from urban suburbs
26% from central cities
14% from rural counties
#ncpol
Also, among these GOP-to-UNA voters:
86% of them voted in the 2020 general election
14% did not vote last November
Granted, this a small percentage of the overall GOP registration # (2.16M), but something to keep in mind and track of going forward.
86% of them voted in the 2020 general election
14% did not vote last November
Granted, this a small percentage of the overall GOP registration # (2.16M), but something to keep in mind and track of going forward.
And (I would hypothesize) just because these voters have gone from registered GOP to unaffiliated does *not* equate to them necessarily leaving the GOP when it comes to voting.
But that will be something to watch over time, if analysis can provide it.
~fin~
But that will be something to watch over time, if analysis can provide it.
~fin~
