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Last October a resurgence of COVID cases began and on 14/10 the Govt imposed Tier restrictions, then lockdown. Case data shows that the restrictions were partially effective but a substantial number of cases persisted indicating significant circulation of virus in all regions.
(2) The end of lockdown on 2/12 was like a dam bursting and the virus rapidly infected the susceptible and available population, with a peak in cases on 31/12. By 12/1, the earliest time that effects from lockdown 3 could be felt, case numbers were falling. @deb_cohen @NickTriggle
(3) Deaths were 400/day throughout Nov until 20/12 then rose to a peak of about 1200 on 19/1 before falling rapidly, which could not be caused by lockdown 3. So the virus encountered a natural barrier to infection. Lockdown may increase the rate of decline, it is not the cause.
(4) Last autumn partial suppression of the virus appears to have delayed the peak from November to January. Would a Nov peak have had more cases and deaths? There is no reason to think so as the susceptible population would be similar. #COVID19
(5) Of the models presented on 29/10, LSHTM looks most likely with a peak of 1850 deaths in mid-December. As for the fools’ errand of #zerocovid sadly they have neither the wisdom of King Cnut nor needed understanding of virology and immunology to see that their cause is futile.
