For anyone interested in the age breakdown for covid in Ireland, I've updated my set of charts with the data since last Sunday. There are links in the last tweet for anyone who wants to look at the full set of charts.
I've a few comments on the changes in this tweet.
1/18
The reduction in case numbers has slowed a lot in the last couple weeks. We're spending a lot of time in the 800-1100 range.
Notice the slope change that started shortly before close contact testing resumed.
2/18
This chart shows the change, even ignoring my very rough approximations in R drawn over it.
3/18
This change in the rate of decrease looks to be associated with the younger age cohorts. Case numbers in the younger ages are increasing while so other age groups have declining numbers with very little change in rate since the peak.
4/18
As a result, the proportion of overall cases in the under 14s is increasing. They had dipped down while close contact testing was not being carried out, and are moving back up towards their previous levels now.
5/18
Hospitalisations are also increasing in the under 14s, consistent with what we have been hearing from the HSE over the last week.
6/18
Given that the case numbers in the younger groups are not where they were at the peak, these hospitalisation increases are surprising to me. I'm not sure what level of increases we should be expecting with the UK variant - there was some dismissal of it..
7/18
.. having increased severity for a while but there seems to be more evidence supporting that it does actually have higher severity recently.
8/18
Still on hospitalisations, while overall they are continuing to decrease, the level of ICU admittances aren't really showing much decrease yet.
9/18
The case numbers among health care workers are reducing again. Would be expected with the decreasing hospitalisation numbers, but the vaccinations have to be helping too.
10/18
On case numbers, the age groups are converging again now that close contacts are being tested. This shows very clearly the impact of testing asymptomatic children. And it also supports that whole classroom testing should have been carried out last year.
11/18
In terms of % increase in cases since last week, the under 15s are back in the unenviable position of leading the table.
It makes you wonder though how high their numbers would be if they weren't so asymptomatic.
12/18
There are many unknowns with this virus regarding long-term effects. What is clear is that many more suffer long covid-19 that was originally thought. Even those with very mild initial symptoms. Longer term damage is less well understood but can be expected to occur.
13/18
So, the progress with reducing case numbers isn't as positive as we thought a fortnight ago. Plotting the case numbers confirms what we were thinking watching news reports over the last week.
14/18
Over the last few days, R has been hovering around 1.0. Now that we are testing close contacts again, it is clear the measures we are using this lockdown aren't sufficient to get us out of lockdown soon.
We (incl. Govt) need to do everything we can to hit this hard...
15/18
If we got it hard, we get numbers down to a manageable level fast, and get out of lockdown sooner. Govt needs to ramp up public health hiring at the same time, and close airports or we're at nothing.
16/18
And contact tracing has to be backwards too. Amazed to read this week that it wasn't being done. No wonder we had so much "private house spread" and talk of schools being safe last year. Not good enough @MichealMartinTD.
17/18
Links to the full charts and Excel files are here:
PDF of all charts:
https://mega.nz/file/CBgDiQTA#dOi0IOwXOwPJ0O-Vp6NCdCgUxcrA962afgkMSF6kcmA

Excel with charts, data & source references:
https://mega.nz/file/OJ5hSKCC#yuTjlRTV64uUl4lmoZtGWivoi1YrLvWm9s0cQKX6wmw
18/18
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