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My interview today with @NIAbbot on @LBC
With a short thread below on the points I made in the interview.
With a short thread below on the points I made in the interview.
The vaccine rollout is a great achievement - we are reaching 15 million vaccinations, the number of people in priority groups 1 to 4 of the JCVI list.
*However*, we don't know what proportion of these groups have been vaccinated - it will not be 100%.
*However*, we don't know what proportion of these groups have been vaccinated - it will not be 100%.
Groups 1-4 are a *political* construct; this distinction is not made by the JCVI, but is in the political vaccine rollout plan
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-covid-19-vaccines-delivery-plan/uk-covid-19-vaccines-delivery-plan
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-covid-19-vaccines-delivery-plan/uk-covid-19-vaccines-delivery-plan
We also know that new variants are circulating. At the moment, the Kent variant is the most prevalent. That wasn't the case when we previously released lockdowns.
So we need to recalibrate our response to the new variant. We can't rely on what happened before.
So we need to recalibrate our response to the new variant. We can't rely on what happened before.
NERVTAG have confirmed that the disease severity of the Kent variant (B.1.1.7) is higher. We also know transmissibility is higher.
Releasing measures to a fixed timetable - locking out changes if you will - may give the impression of control, but it is anything but.
Wales and Scotland may reopen schools on 22 February. England can use the time between 22 February and when schools *could* reopen to see what effect this has and to adjust reopening measures. This should not be fixed on 22 February. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-51643556
We have hospitalizations falling.
However, we must not become accustomed to this level of hospitalization and sadly deaths in the order of 1,000 per day.
This is not acceptable, which is why we are having a lockdown now.
However, we must not become accustomed to this level of hospitalization and sadly deaths in the order of 1,000 per day.
This is not acceptable, which is why we are having a lockdown now.
It was surprising to hear reports that the Prime Minister thinks it is likely that R will increase above 1 as a result of the measures. This means exponential growth from an already very high case rate.
We are in a very complex time - the dynamics of vaccination, new variants, and release of lockdown is very difficult to predict. It is however predicable that releasing lockdown early to a fixed timetable will result in unnecessary hospitalizations and deaths.
*Everyone* wants an end to lockdown.
However, it needs to be a sustainable policy - so that we do not go into yet another Lockdown 4 with the extra burden *that* lockdown will have on the economy.
However, it needs to be a sustainable policy - so that we do not go into yet another Lockdown 4 with the extra burden *that* lockdown will have on the economy.
We don't know what will be announced on 22 February.
A prudent Government would be cautious, would not define an inflexible timetable, and would adjust according to new data.
A prudent Government would be cautious, would not define an inflexible timetable, and would adjust according to new data.
The Government knows the increased transmissibility and disease severity of the new variant.
It would be reckless to release lockdown to a fixed timetable *expecting* that R would exceed 1 while so many remain vulnerable to this dreadful disease.
It would be reckless to release lockdown to a fixed timetable *expecting* that R would exceed 1 while so many remain vulnerable to this dreadful disease.
