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Liverpool #COVID19 cases by specimen date up to 9th Feb are falling but recently at a much slower rate than the previous trend
If this were to continue (black) Liverpool would reach 02 Dec 'Tier 2' case numbers a month later than remaining on the previous trend (purple)
1/
If this were to continue (black) Liverpool would reach 02 Dec 'Tier 2' case numbers a month later than remaining on the previous trend (purple)
1/
Reality is neither trend will really happen, these are just scenarios given the path of the data so far.
But it gives a good opportunity to highlight just how much time could be lost even when R is below 1 but increases a tiny bit...
But it gives a good opportunity to highlight just how much time could be lost even when R is below 1 but increases a tiny bit...
Each day brings more knowledge on where we are and where we're going. Breaking previous ideas and forming new better ones.
These trends are found by simply plotting the data on a log plot and drawing straight lines.
Good thread on logs and stuff here: https://twitter.com/BristOliver/status/1330457775755964421?s=20
These trends are found by simply plotting the data on a log plot and drawing straight lines.
Good thread on logs and stuff here: https://twitter.com/BristOliver/status/1330457775755964421?s=20
Earlier in the week I spit-balled on Twitter whether the slow down was real or just an artefact of more testing. I sided at the time that it is real (and still do). https://twitter.com/AdamJRuby/status/1359627822223020032?s=20
At some point, suspect vaccines will jump in and *really* give this virus a headache when it comes to spread. If that happens we would see cases go lower much faster than just fitting a meh linear trend on a log plot (below) https://twitter.com/BristOliver/status/1353270197935812608?s=20
But it looks like despite a superb vaccination roll-out it takes ages to see their effects in cases(?). So in the meantime a front door is more effective for reducing cases.
So a little work now could go a long way & it'd be nice for Liverpool to pop back down to purple asap
So a little work now could go a long way & it'd be nice for Liverpool to pop back down to purple asap
Also.. Reported cases are apparently (thankfully) lower than what one would expect on the black line in the last two days, which is a great sign!
Would be good if this is seen after the specimen date lag is resolved, keen to wait & will update https://twitter.com/cjmckeon/status/1360988571474268168?s=20
Would be good if this is seen after the specimen date lag is resolved, keen to wait & will update https://twitter.com/cjmckeon/status/1360988571474268168?s=20
