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As restaurants re-open (again) around us, I'm seeing so much confusion (again) about this.
Mostly I see: "Why is it okay for hair salons/clothes stores to open, but not restaurants?"
Thread
Mostly I see: "Why is it okay for hair salons/clothes stores to open, but not restaurants?"
Thread
Let's walk through two scenarios, knowing what we know about COVID-19 and how it spreads.
For these scenarios, we presume everyone, including you, is unvaccinated.
For these scenarios, we presume everyone, including you, is unvaccinated.
You go to a shoe store. You look at shoes, you check out, you're only close to the cashier. Everyone in the store wears a mask the entire time, including you. The store is at 25% capacity. You leave.
Some risk? Yes. High risk? No.
Do you feel comfortable in this scenario?
Some risk? Yes. High risk? No.
Do you feel comfortable in this scenario?
Now, let's travel to a restaurant. You go in, you're seated. You're at a table of four people from two different families. You order. You wear a mask until your food comes, but during that time two of the other tables 10ish feet away remove their masks and eat for 15ish minutes.
You food comes. Your two families eat, seated next to each other, for another 20 minutes. Maybe during that time the table over also doesn't have their masks on, because they are eating and drinking. Or another table comes in and has drinks, no masks.
Maybe the restaurant is small or the ventilation is poor. Maybe the restaurant owners or workers are also eating at the bar for a period of time, also without masks.
With each lengthy period of time people are unmasked, indoors, there may be COVID spread.
High risk? YES!
With each lengthy period of time people are unmasked, indoors, there may be COVID spread.
High risk? YES!
Now, for all you armchair policy makers.
Scenario 1) Community spread is low. So there is only a 3% chance of each person having COVID. Maybe those are pretty good odds.
Scenario 2) Let's say COVID spread is high, and each person has a 12% chance of having COVID.
Scenario 1) Community spread is low. So there is only a 3% chance of each person having COVID. Maybe those are pretty good odds.
Scenario 2) Let's say COVID spread is high, and each person has a 12% chance of having COVID.
During the second scenario, would you feel comfortable going to a restaurant and eating indoors with strangers?
During the second scenario, would you be worried if the government said "go ahead and re-open," that people would feel it's "safe"?
Aka have a FALSE sense of security?
Aka have a FALSE sense of security?
During the second scenario, would you feel comfortable with your local officials saying hey, we're not going to do indoor dining right now, it's too risky?
At what percentage of people having COVID would you feel comfortable with the government closing indoor dining?
What percentage number would you feel that is okay? 5%? 7%? 10%? 15% More?
What percentage number would you feel that is okay? 5%? 7%? 10%? 15% More?
Unfortunately, these decisions are much more complicated than these simple, non-scientific polls.
And we need policy decisions (closing restaurants) to take into account policy consequences (loss of jobs), and provide policy solutions for that as well (paid shutdowns).
And we need policy decisions (closing restaurants) to take into account policy consequences (loss of jobs), and provide policy solutions for that as well (paid shutdowns).
Finally, I hope you can see why public health folks have been pushing, pushing, pushing for all ways to lower the COVID numbers in all communities. Because low community spread or no community spread (which many countries have achieved WITHOUT vaccines) is good for business.
