1/8 - #Terra $Luna supply future outlook analysis & its likely consequences

- to meet $UST demand, $Luna continues to be burned to mint more $UST
- 6.6m $Luna burnt in each of the last 2 days
- http://terra.smartstake.io/history  shows the burn & supply metrics

@terra_money #LunaToMoon

2/8 - pace is expected to remain at this level in near future & if anything may increase when proposal http://station.terra.money/proposal/36  is passed
- assumption - all network parameters remain as is i.e. same $Luna price, same staking ratio, TFL holdings not required 4 burning $Luna

3/8 - assumption - same $UST demand as today or atleast enough demand to not require the reverse flow (i.e. burn $UST & mint $Luna)

consideration - 64.4m staked amount from TFL holdings is excluded from calculations (plays no role in outcome)

4/8 - Model 1 - $Luna burnt at same rate as last 2 days (about 6.6 million) - source http://terra.smartstake.io 

- by end of 19th March, liquid supply will be 0 i.e. there will be no more $Luna left in the market/exchanges for burning

5/8 - Model 2 - $Luna burnt at 50% of the burn rate as last 2 days (about 6.6 million = 3.3m) - source http://terra.smartstake.io 

- by 21st April, liquid supply will be 0 i.e. there will be no more $Luna left in the market/exchanges for burning

6/8 - The above models are unlikely to play out as-is. They are created to show case that $Luna supply will continue to diminish in the prevailing circumstances. As long as $UST demand remains, $Luna will gradually become more and more scarce.

Irrespective of actual burn rate ..

7/8 - irrespective of the actual burn rate, between now and next few months, there will be a point where $Luna supply will very scarce.

And at that point of time, the price is going to explode and just keep going upwards. Moon ride is not far

Are you packed yet?

8/8 - Product announcements/other fundamentals can make this happen at much faster pace

Negative considerations -
- market nosedives for non-Luna reasons
- $UST demand drops significantly
- Terraform Labs is burning tons of $Luna (out of non-circulation supply)

See you on moon