Read on Twitter
My few Twitter followers will know I am VERY critical of
@FatEmperor - I may be indignant at the way this fellow Irish man has carried on through the pandemic but with good cause - he parodies science and undermines public health efforts and does so for PERSONAL PROFIT & EGO
@FatEmperor - I may be indignant at the way this fellow Irish man has carried on through the pandemic but with good cause - he parodies science and undermines public health efforts and does so for PERSONAL PROFIT & EGO
While the nation has sacrificed and I have seen my colleagues at the front line pushed to the brink - Ivor has spouted nonsense and gained traction and influence based on ultimately empty showmanship which I will tackle here in this thread 
@FatEmperor loves to point to 29 "published" papers that disprove "CHINA LOCKDOWN SCIENCE" - so let's have a look ... 
I might also direct you to Potholer youtube channel that has done a good job on this
I might also direct you to Potholer youtube channel that has done a good job on this
First of all, what Ivor is doing is a "GISH GALLOP" -
a technique in which a debater attempts to overwhelm an opponent by an excessive number of arguments, without regard for the accuracy or strength of those arguments" - not read the "papers" ....
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gish_gallop#:~:text=The%20Gish%20gallop%20is%20a,or%20strength%20of%20those%20arguments.
a technique in which a debater attempts to overwhelm an opponent by an excessive number of arguments, without regard for the accuracy or strength of those arguments" - not read the "papers" ....
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gish_gallop#:~:text=The%20Gish%20gallop%20is%20a,or%20strength%20of%20those%20arguments.
... the thing is that Ivor has not read all of these either ..
Almost all of these are not peer-reviewed or "Published" papers - some are news articles or random pieces from dubious organizations
let's have a look at the "LANCET" paper number 2 on his list
Almost all of these are not peer-reviewed or "Published" papers - some are news articles or random pieces from dubious organizations
let's have a look at the "LANCET" paper number 2 on his list
As you can see its not the "LANCET" - it is in the same publishing house but that is not the same thing at all - Ivor makes this mistake a lot, this should speak to his style over substance and scientific illiteracy. It's not to disparage Eclinical medicine but the lancet its not
Ivor has put it in his collection because it concludes lockdowns did not reduce overall mortality (at the time of their May 1st data) ..a good example of cherry-picking not only the study but one piece of it ... ignoring lockdowns reduced cases & lag in effect &mortality caveat
let's go to an actual Paper in the BMJ - number 11 - the problem here is the authors themselves strongly disagreed with Ivor's interpretation - as the 1st author @theresphysics highlights here https://twitter.com/theresphysics/status/1344236088706138112?s=20
https://twitter.com/theresphysics/status/1344236088706138112?s=20
Paper 13 - caught my eye and commentary in a good journal Epidemiology. The 1st thing to notice is that is from 2008. Ivor seems got as far as the abstract - "interventions that
limit transmission can paradoxically increase the burden of disease in a population"
limit transmission can paradoxically increase the burden of disease in a population"
What this is a commentary on another article on Listeria infections - being more severe is you get them at an older age and getting it early in life and acquiring immunity might negate some benefit of having a hygienic food supply... anyone bad reasoning coming ...
What I think he is implying is that let infections hit the young and the elderly will be protected...god knows since he simply plops papers on the list and declares victory.. he ignores that it's because the benefit to the elderly was due to immunity to their own prior infections
Unless we send covid back in time to infect the elderly when they were young ... this is a really weird point.
To be charitable it also references drawbacks of varicella immunization of children - not exposing adults and boosting their zoster immunity ... but again relies
To be charitable it also references drawbacks of varicella immunization of children - not exposing adults and boosting their zoster immunity ... but again relies
on the older adult already having some immunity from a childhood exposure ...
in short this paper says absolutely nothing of relevance to covid19 ... yet it is on his list ...
Let's get to Number 19 Belarus and the low mortality despite no lockdown - not peer reviewed
in short this paper says absolutely nothing of relevance to covid19 ... yet it is on his list ...
Let's get to Number 19 Belarus and the low mortality despite no lockdown - not peer reviewed
The article acknowledges the problem may be with reporting and faulty numbers ... Belarus is a dictatorship. But analysis of figures that have been released suggests they may well be as hard hit as anywhere ... check out Sergery Mastitsky here https://medium.com/ai-in-plain-english/estimating-covid-19-excess-deaths-in-the-republic-of-belarus-316ca80481ed
I need to take a small break here ...
Now to 21 on the list the PANDATA analysis ... looks official right .. PANdemic data analysis very scientific .. are they governmental, scholarly Insitute experienced in pandemic epidemiology .... well 4 employees on linked in ...
well, there is 1 trained actuary wow -then a business person who can fly, an actor, and a children's author (zoom in the pic below). No medical background / no research background discernable ... the paper is not peer-reviewed it does not even appear to be submitted ... NEXT !
Ah, Number 22 - from the New England Journal ... let's see how Ivor is vindicated ... ok ... where does it say lockdowns don't work .... where .... 
.. it appears that locking down Marines showed a low rate of Asymptomatic spread that was most likely occur within platoons...
.. it appears that locking down Marines showed a low rate of Asymptomatic spread that was most likely occur within platoons...
I literally don't know what point Ivor is trying to make here ... that spread occurred even in a disciplined setting .. he does realize they weren't completely quarantined from each other "double room occupancy" was a risk factor .. anyway it's on the list because 
.. onward...
.. onward...
Number 25 from Ivors beloved Sweden - again not peer-reviewed and from 2 authors but from the Karolinska a prestigious institute lets have a look ...
I must to understand the magnitude the #selfown here mention Ivor's dry tinder theory ... he mentions it a lot. A mild winter 2018-19 left more vulnerable to die in 2020 and therefore all excess deaths are imaginary ... you may note his May 25th tweet hasn't aged well..
Back to the Karolinska lads submission .. Ivor might be attracted to the statement that factors affecting mortality might have already been present before lockdowns ... (this is a fine statement population spread / comorbidity frequency etc).. now wait for it main conclusions....
... their main finding ... if nations not affected by the respiratory virus in preceding years were spared larger effects from covid19 ... In otherwords - it DIRECTLY CONTRADICTS Ivors own "DRY TINDER" hypothesis
And it was in the abstract too .. @FatEmperor do you even read the abstracts !
I could go on ... I will never deny that there is a conversation to be had on risk benefits and trade-off of lockdowns etc .. but presenting nonsense and gish galloping is not how we make progress.. and if you do it for profit you are fair game for criticism .... one last item...
Despite us already pointing it out Ivor continues to use a fictional map for his videos... all it missing is #Wakanda it can be found here ... https://deviantart.com/ynot1989/art/Post-Flood-Earth-350806869 I think this says something about his quality control as he makes video after video for his fans $$$ ..
I should add prior debunks of Ivor
https://twitter.com/roberto_blanko/status/1306382326461542400?s=20
https://twitter.com/jocami_ca/status/1309218148734959616?s=20
http://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/index.php?title=Cummins-2020-09-08
@braidedmanga @s8mb also have done nice debunks and the nice piece from @cjsnowdon all worth finding...
https://twitter.com/roberto_blanko/status/1306382326461542400?s=20
https://twitter.com/jocami_ca/status/1309218148734959616?s=20
http://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/index.php?title=Cummins-2020-09-08
@braidedmanga @s8mb also have done nice debunks and the nice piece from @cjsnowdon all worth finding...
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Ivor Cummins (just noting I never said his full name) so not coming on searches. Also lot of people calling him Cummings which is understandable. Anyway name and shame.
