Read on Twitter
1/ You know what amazes me about the lockdown ending debate? I'll tell you what amazes me about the lockdown ending debate.
2/ It's that the absolute requirement to develop a working Test & Trace system, as condition for opening up, has been completely forgotten.
3/ And yet there have been NO improvements in the Test & Trace system. In fact, the government has given up on it.
Here is a very simple metric for a test & trace system: the number of people traced per person transferred to the test & trace system.
Agreed?
Here is a very simple metric for a test & trace system: the number of people traced per person transferred to the test & trace system.
Agreed?
4/ And here is the data for the week ending June 3rd (first, tighter lockdown) and Feb 3rd (2nd, looser lockdown)
In June, 6.2 close contacts per person testing positive and transferred to T&T were reached. In February, it was 1.7 close contacts per person.
In June, 6.2 close contacts per person testing positive and transferred to T&T were reached. In February, it was 1.7 close contacts per person.
5/ The data is here (tables 10 and 14, if you want to check https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/nhs-test-and-trace-england-statistics-28-january-to-3-february-2021
It's government data.
It's government data.
6/ This dramatic collapse is in spite of the fact that c. 87% of all close contacts reached are in the same household, and as a result of November rule changes, not actually contacted. They're just added to the data on assumption that the person with coronavirus will tell them
7/ Meanwhile, in New South Wales, "One case may have 10-25 contacts", says an expert, who's still not happy that they're doing it right there https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-18/contact-tracing-coronavirus-australia-five-hallmarks-succcess/12759068
So where they do tracing well, they trace many, many more people per case.
So where they do tracing well, they trace many, many more people per case.
8/ And yet nobody seems interested.
We have a pretty well non-existent tracing system, and nobody seems interested in how this relates to lockdown.
That's what amazes me.
We have a pretty well non-existent tracing system, and nobody seems interested in how this relates to lockdown.
That's what amazes me.
9/ Here's another thread on the detail of the test & trace flow, and the govt disinformation about it https://twitter.com/Bickerrecord/status/1359091634978357250 but I don't think people will be interested.
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