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I’ve spent this month looking at our biggest issue, our GK and how it can be resolved in the summer and did Petrachi really get it that wrong with Pau. In this thread I will look at all these issues and try to answer them the best I can, backed up with stats where possible.
Firstly we will look at Pau Lopez’s time at us. His first 5 months were of a decent level then came the drop in 2020. I’m unable to break down his individual stats, but in terms of the teams xGA we went from over achieving by just over 3 in December to under achieving by about 2.
We will focus now on the two middle columns, the first (0.28) looks at how likely the GK is to save the shot meaning the higher the number the more difficult the saves. The 3rd column looks at how much they over/underperformed xG by. Together they work nicely to paint a picture.
To evaluate Pau’s performance last season we will compare those numbers to the rest of Serie A GKs and it’s a good chance to look at his preferred successors. Below we can see he is underperforming when the shots he is facing aren’t that dangerous.
This then lead me to see how he performed in this area when at Betis and before that at Espanyol. The first image is him at Betis and then the 2nd is his year at Espanyol. Like at us his Betis numbers are underwhelming so why did Petrachi spend 25M on him?
In the second image above we see Pau put up world class numbers at Espanyol and Betis picking him up for free must have looked like a steal. This is a potential reason why Petrachi gambled on him, but as always with these numbers, consistency is key.
The other big reasons why I believe Pau was picked was because of his sweeping & being used to a possession based style at Betis. Below we see him having the lowest passing distance meaning he suits a possession style and he has the 3rd highest actions outside the box.
Now we will take a look at Mirante in relation to Pau and the rest of the Serie A GKs this season. Evidently Mirante has been dreadful this season, a real disappointment on top of Pau’s performances. There is no doubt we 100% need a GK this summer.
Now we will look at potential Serie A replacements, particularly focusing on Silvestri, Musso, Cragno, Gollini & Dragowski. We will firstly look at them all compared, then dive into a few individually that I have more to say on.
Serie A 2020/21 Stats so far. Firstly focusing on how dangerous the shots they faced were and if they are under/over performing. In the 2nd picture is the average distance of their passes.
1st picture below looks at how successful they are aerially. Then the 2nd is their sweeping ability.
Serie A 2019/20. Focusing on how dangerous the shots they faced were & if they are under/over performing in the 1st picture. In the 2nd picture is the average distance of their passes. 3rd picture looks at how successful they are aerially. Then the 4th is their sweeping ability.
The Interesting Case of Silvestri- Doesn’t suit the style of GK we seem to use and need. He faces the least dangerous shots in the league and doesn’t over perform it massively, being exposed to more dangerous shots could result in him underperforming.
He has the longest average length of pass so he might not be suited to a more possession style. When I’ve watched him he doesn’t look too composed on the ball so this could be an issue. Also sweeping wise he doesn’t seem the best fit for a high line so I’d have my reservations.
Arguably the biggest worry with him is his aerial ability as he sits at the bottom in terms of success of dealing with balls into the box. Roma face a fair few cross as can be seen on Pau’s numbers. In conclusion I’d stay away from Silvestri after looking at this data.
The two best options within Serie A are clearly Musso and Cragno, I will now compare the both of them and then decide who I would prefer. Cragno, 24, 6’0, Cost=20-25M, Contract till 2024. Musso, 26, 6’3, Cost=30M+, Contract till 2023.
Shot stopping- Both excel in this area and for the last 3 seasons have put up very encouraging and consistent numbers. The consistency is key as it shows they weren’t flukes. (1st picture is 20/21, 2nd is 19/20, 3rd is 18/19) Both consistently over perform xG.
Distribution- Both play more direct passes for obvious reasons with the clubs they play for but watching both numerous times I can confidently say they are good enough with room to develop. For me Cragno looks the most competent on the ball out of the two.
Aerially- This is often regarded as the biggest weakness/worry with Cragno, but the statistics show this isn’t a big problem even with him being on the short side for a GK. Musso is very dominant in the air and with his stature you know why. These two are very strong aerially.
Sweeping- Both have had more of a chance this season with their two clubs favouring a higher line. Neither have had the chance to show their qualities in this aspect greatly so that’s a question mark but when they have, both seem to have the attributes to be successful.
Judgement- For me if money wasn’t a problem I’d have more confidence in Musso, but it is very close. If we could get Cragno for 10M+ cheaper then I’d definitely favour him. Both are very impressive GKs and it could be a great project for Savorani if he stays.
