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1/ Dear Twitter Dems:
As long as we are all talking about 2022, at the risk of being a real Debbie Downer, I feel like somebody needs to break the news to you now, before it's too late. You see, turns out that Senate races are not, in fact, determined by a national popular vote.
As long as we are all talking about 2022, at the risk of being a real Debbie Downer, I feel like somebody needs to break the news to you now, before it's too late. You see, turns out that Senate races are not, in fact, determined by a national popular vote.
2/ IKR? Who knew? But I've checked and apparently, senators are elected solely by the people in the states they represent and therefore give fuck all about what people in other states, or the nation generally, think about them.
3/ For those of you who haven't already committed to sit out the midterms due to your disappointment that you didn't get the witnesses you decided were indispensable over the course of about three hours, this has implications for 2022. I did some slides to help illustrate them.
4/ These slides are made from the 270 to Win 2022 Senate Race map. Ready? Here we go.
These are the states we have a chance of flipping in 2022. There are three of them. See? 1, 2, 3. Three.
These are the states we have a chance of flipping in 2022. There are three of them. See? 1, 2, 3. Three.
5/ This is the state we could lose a seat in if we assume that Stacey Abrams and the unique circumstances of Trump, the expanded absentee voting the GQP is going to kill and COVID turned it blue forever so we can all sit on our asses or have a us a good sulk now.
6/ These are the states we might possibly have a chance at flipping if the new voter suppression measures planned by the Republicans who run the states are less successful than anticipated and the incumbents are caught on film fucking a goat or something.
7/ These are states that are probably safe, light blue shade notwithstanding, unless we fuck around and find out by tent-sulking and WATB moaning about not getting our ponies. Or, you know, goats.
8/ This is the important one. These are the states we cannot, under any circumstances, goats included, win. Every dime you donate, every call you make in these states is a complete waste of money and energy you should spend on the states identified in the prior slides.
9/ Because I know this will be controversial among some, I have prepared a FAQ.
Q: I really, really, really hate Rand Paul. Doesn't that mean he could lose if we flood Kentucky with money and calls and energy we should be spending in PA, NC, WI, and GA?
A: No.
Q: I really, really, really hate Rand Paul. Doesn't that mean he could lose if we flood Kentucky with money and calls and energy we should be spending in PA, NC, WI, and GA?
A: No.
10/
Q: Okay, but you don't get it. I really, really, really hate him!
A: We all hate him. It doesn't matter because a majority of his constituents are hateful assholes who will vote for him because we hate him.
Q: Okay, but you don't get it. I really, really, really hate him!
A: We all hate him. It doesn't matter because a majority of his constituents are hateful assholes who will vote for him because we hate him.
11/
Q: Okay, but lookit! Texas! what about Ted Cruz? Everybody hates Ted Cruz! We could totally flip that one!
A: Okay, Ted could probably lose in Texas if the goat scenario played out, but we've run this experiment under the best possible circumstances twice now. No.
Q: Okay, but lookit! Texas! what about Ted Cruz? Everybody hates Ted Cruz! We could totally flip that one!
A: Okay, Ted could probably lose in Texas if the goat scenario played out, but we've run this experiment under the best possible circumstances twice now. No.
12/
Q: But we really, really, really, *really* hate Ted Cruz! Doesn't that count for something? Can't the sheer power of our mass hatred unseat him?
A: Texas Republicans thrive on our hate like that thing in the Star Trek episode that did that. It makes them stronger. No.
Q: But we really, really, really, *really* hate Ted Cruz! Doesn't that count for something? Can't the sheer power of our mass hatred unseat him?
A: Texas Republicans thrive on our hate like that thing in the Star Trek episode that did that. It makes them stronger. No.
13/
Q: Okay, but what about . . .
A: Look, what aren't you getting here? It isn't happening. And if you blow time, money and energy trying to unseat senators who represent assholes who think what they did today is awesome, this it what the Senate looks like in 2023:
Q: Okay, but what about . . .
A: Look, what aren't you getting here? It isn't happening. And if you blow time, money and energy trying to unseat senators who represent assholes who think what they did today is awesome, this it what the Senate looks like in 2023:
14/
Q: You don't know that! You can't predict the future!
A: My point here is that these are the strong probabilities, based on history, data and the underlying math. The only certainty here is that math doesn't care about your feelings.
Q: You don't know that! You can't predict the future!
A: My point here is that these are the strong probabilities, based on history, data and the underlying math. The only certainty here is that math doesn't care about your feelings.
15/
Q: You aren't the boss of me! You can't tell me what to do! I hate them! If I get over my butthurt about the Weak Dem Cave before 2022, I will burst my hot heart's shell upon them as if my chest is a mortar!
A: You didn't read all the way to the end of that book, did you?
Q: You aren't the boss of me! You can't tell me what to do! I hate them! If I get over my butthurt about the Weak Dem Cave before 2022, I will burst my hot heart's shell upon them as if my chest is a mortar!
A: You didn't read all the way to the end of that book, did you?
16/
Q: You are being very condescending. I don't think you're actually even trying to persuade me at all.
A: You're an imaginary person who doesn't get that democracy is about the sovereignty of math and doesn't care about your feelings. I'm allowed to be condescending to you.
Q: You are being very condescending. I don't think you're actually even trying to persuade me at all.
A: You're an imaginary person who doesn't get that democracy is about the sovereignty of math and doesn't care about your feelings. I'm allowed to be condescending to you.
17/
Q: But you're making fun of real people!
A: If someone chooses to go "ooh, that shoe you're holding out is a *perfect* fit!" and jam their foot into it, that's on them. my purpose here is to exhort people not to be like you by showing you're ridiculous.
Q: But you're making fun of real people!
A: If someone chooses to go "ooh, that shoe you're holding out is a *perfect* fit!" and jam their foot into it, that's on them. my purpose here is to exhort people not to be like you by showing you're ridiculous.
18/ And it's important, because we are looking at years, years and years and years of living on the very brink of the abyss, one fuck-up or fuck-off away from losing democracy altogether. We can't screw around on self-indulgent nonsense like it's 1995 anymore.
