Alright let's get some charts rolling.

Here's a standard MS of rec yds by age chart for all our transfers (Xs are hits), plus a baseline regression based off all hits.

Golladay, Gallup and Curtis clear the line every season. Aiyuk's age 20 is bad. Hollywood under both years. https://twitter.com/Cooper_DFF/status/1360752976709750785

Let's check out yards/team PA and see if it's saying anything different.

Mostly same story, though Hollywood's age 20 looks better. Aiyuk still bad age 20.

Conclusion (so far):

This isn't a big enough sample to feel confident, but I don't see any evidence here that we should be giving transfers a break on analytics expectations (besides BOA).

Knowing this, I would probably fade an Aiyuk-type profile again.