Here's what Mitch McConnell was thinking. He has competing goals here. One, he wants Trump gone for good. Two, he wants a shot to retake the Senate Majority in 2022. Problem is he needs Trump's base to stay loyal to the party, or at least not angry at it. 1/
So he's in a kind of paradoxical situation, damned if he does, damned if he doesn't. I thought he might try to split the difference by whipping his caucus to convict Trump, but then leaving the simple majority vote to bar him from office entirely to the Dems. 2/
But, turns out there's another way. Via the 14th Amendment, a simple majority vote of the House and Senate can bar anyone from office who has committed insurrection against the US government. This was written in the aftermath of the Civil War to ban Confederates from gov. 3/
The 14th is vaguely worded, but after reading up on some scholarly analysis of it today, the consensus is one would have to be convicted, either by impeachment OR, important bit here, by criminal courts of insurrection, treason, sedition, etc. Which is McConnell's play. 4/
His post trial speech leaned VERY heavily on the theme that Trump as a private citizen is no longer exempt from criminal prosecution. "He hasn't gotten away with anything yet. Yet." Mitch also went to great lengths to explain Trump's culpability in the riots. 5/
My read is Mitch hopes, or perhaps even expects Trump to be criminally charged at this point. His email announcement that he would vote to acquit today, the morning after details of Trump's incriminating call with McCarthy, oddly supports this hypothesis. 6/
It may sound counter-intuitive, but if the House managers had given a less compelling, open-and shut argument, McConnell could have been much more tempted to vote for conviction and find enough other votes to ensure it. But after last night's new evidence... 7/
... criminal charges and eventual conviction became much more likely, perhaps even probable. The DC AG leaked yesterday that they intend to investigate the matter with Trump as the primary target along with other GOP senators and reps. 8/
Moscow Mitch knows this, and now he knows there's a very good chance Trump can be removed from the board and banned from running again and fucking up the GOP primaries or splitting the vote with a 3rd party run. And he can do it without the GOP Senate getting it's hands dirty. 9/
That's McConnell's calculation in all this, I'd put money on it. He's a scheming, treasonous snake, but he's also a master at manipulating the system. and if he can kneecap Trump in a way that allows him to lay all the blame at the feet of democrats, you bet he'll do it. 10/10
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