It’s already been clearly parsed out that the SDNY isn’t bringing the criminal case against Trump, the Manhattan District Attorney is.

This will become important later when the media tries to scare you for ratings by announcing out of context that the SDNY isn’t pursuing Trump.

Also, SDNY is part of the DOJ and brings federal charges. The SDNY has nothing to do with New York State, beyond having its office there.

If Trump faces federal charges for the insurrection, it’ll come from main DOJ, not SDNY. The insurrection didn’t happen in New York.

The criminal cases against Trump:

1) Manhattan DA, financial charges (confirmed)

2) Fulton County DA, election fraud (confirmed)

3) Washington DC Attorney General, insurrection (in discussion)

4) DOJ, various potential federal charges (no one knows if this one will happen)

How we know this?

- The Manhattan DA has a widely documented grand jury going against Trump.

- The Fulton DA announced her case on TV.

- The DC AG’s office said yesterday it’s looking at charges.

You don’t need inside information. You just have to pay attention, that’s all.

Financial charges are very easy to get a conviction on. Election fraud is fairly easy. Incitement of violence is a grey area and harder to convict on, which is why it matters that the impeachment managers have already put that case together for whichever jurisdiction runs with it

Separate from the Manhattan District Attorney’s criminal case against Trump, the New York Attorney General has a civil case going against Trump. Civil cases don’t put you in prison, they can only take your money and assets. But the AG will refer any criminal findings to the DA.

Bottom line: Trump will definitely be sentenced to prison in New York. He’ll probably be sentenced to prison in Georgia. And that’s before getting to any insurrection charges. It’s why I’ve spent the past month pointing out that the criminal cases, not impeachment, are the story.

So when will Trump be arrested? No way for us to know. Prosecutors move at their own pace, and they’re uninterested in our impatience. But Trump is gone from power now. Haste isn’t necessary; thoroughness is. He’ll be arrested, tried, convicted, and imprisoned long before 2024.