so, whether or not Wasserman is correct will make for an interesting test case of something @MartinSkold2 and I discussed https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1360657774947028992

Trump, as of right now, anyway, has been perma-banned by the major social media platforms. Could he successfully run in 2024 without the ability to organize via these platforms?

If the answer is yes -- whether it is due to simple baseline political support or some alternative multimedia infrastructure -- then it would show that those platforms' influence has been overstated.

That hypothetical came up when @MartinSkold2
and I were discussing a related question of whether those perma-bans themselves would hold if Trump became a 2024 GOP nominee and had at least the baseline win probability he had in 2016

The perma-bans emerged for a variety of reasons -- platform liability in wake of 1/6 incident, pressure from employees, fear of being seen as complicit in coup/autogolpe/whatever affair, desire to placate Dems in executive and legislature, etc....

....but also a calculation that Trump was politically finished, and that he was weak enough to be *expelled* from Twitter and FB as opposed to merely restrained. That calculation may prove to be incorrect.

Obviously if the scenario I am discussing comes about we'll have a lot more important things to worry about than the ex-President's posting rights. But it has been on my mind since the perma-bans were declared.