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PAKISTAN & THE US IN AFGHANISTAN
Red flags in the East: is Pakistan crawling over ice for an illusion?
A Major Non Nato Alliance or a major missed opportunity?
Some of my humble & probably unimportant thoughts about Pakistan in Afghanistan.
Please like & share if you enjoy.
Red flags in the East: is Pakistan crawling over ice for an illusion?
A Major Non Nato Alliance or a major missed opportunity?
Some of my humble & probably unimportant thoughts about Pakistan in Afghanistan.
Please like & share if you enjoy.
Through "shared interests in Afghanistan" Pakistan & US could mutually benefit. Pak pushes Doha deal, US falters on it, but both have legitimate interests in fighting extremism. For US, that is Taliban acquainted Al Qaeda & others, for Pak it incl. the also Taliban affiliated TTP
In Pak, there is the idea Taliban are friendly or even a loyal proxy of Pakistan, which is very false. Taliban do not recognise Durand Line officially, nor do they quash dissent against Durand. Taliban shield groups that actively work against Pakistan.
Taliban consistently shielded "fellow Mujahedeen" TTP (so called "Afghan proxy"), & others responsible for murders of innocent Pakistanis. Some in Pak establishment (esp govt) genuinely sympathise with Taliban & others believe they are using them as a tool to serve Pak interests.
Taliban have their own interests & Pak's happiness isn't one. Taliban distrust Pakistan partly for supporting WoT & many indulge in racism towards Pakistanis incl. Pak Pashtuns. Taliban are not friends to Pak, nor are they "good people" as far as Islamic or non Islamic morals go.
Pakistan has not explored other ideas for a resolution in Afghanistan & thus dependent on Taliban for Doha Deal. Pakistan wants to see a settlement & for the US to leave Afghanistan, so that it can exact its will in Afghanistan. But:
This is naive- if the US leave Afghanistan, Pakistan will inherit & be responsible for fixing chaos. US presence reduces that greatly Pakistan only recently didn't control its own Waziristan. Is this what Pakistan needs? After all, it's about SECURING their western border.
Pakistan sees "amicable" Taliban as better than NDS backed warlords. Understandably, given Afghanistan is a hostile country, but this is thinking short term. What Pakistan needs to understand is that the Taliban's dependence on Pakistan DOESN'T EXIST. Taliban have other suitors.
They increasingly court Russia/China. Many leaders actually stay in Qatar. & have a great relationship with Iran. Pak are not the big dogs in Afghanistan now. They made enemies in many Afghans who remember IEA rule AND lost the respect and dependence of the Taliban long ago.
Pakistan is merely the fall guy in Afghanistan, while bigger and smarter powers fight it out for their interests. The best case study for this is Iran. We know already about how deeply impactful Iran is on Pakistan.
Without saying too much, many in top brass of Pak Mail est. know about Iran threat & dislike pan Islamism. *A* problem is dependence on Islamism for security. Iran support or ignore what Pakistan is doing because they have similar goals as Pakistan: incl. pushing the US out.
The is the same Iran that India uses Chabahar in to access Afghanistan, bypassing Pakistan. This is the same Iran who helped sponsor Indian terrorist groups in Balochistan & this is the same Iran that recruits Pakistanis to use as cannon fodder in their proxy wars.
If Pak, who can't even remove itself from Iranian shackles, has the same foreign policy goal as Iran, then you can imagine that it won't be fully in Pakistan's interests after all. Yes, Pak may have good ties with China, but does Pak want a dependence on them in Afghanistan too?
US doesn't want to leave Afg & both Pak/US want to deal with extremism in Afg for security reasons. Missed opportunities. No reason why, after US invasion that Pakistan couldn't have taken the opportunity to fight extremism- including those that took 70,000+ Pakistani lives.
Pakistan could've EASILY had border fencing up years ago, but it chose not to. Why? So it could continue to fend off Pashtun nationalism AND engage in cross border proxy warfare. Afghanistan is NEVER going to relinquish its longing for Pak territory- it's ideological & political.
Warlords in Kabul know how they can exploit Durand Line for support from their natives. On top of this, extremists have actually harmed Pakistan greatly. US knows this. But the shared interests were fighting extremism & US mission there could've been exploited by Pak.
Pak WOULD have received great benefits for supporting some US ambitions & had many overlooked shared interests- think bigger than F-16s. Is Afg also about destabilising Pak? Well, it did & most of that was avoidable except for mistakes & inadequacy of Pak. https://twitter.com/StarOfHilal/status/1358794566435020803?s=19
The US are still there, so is Ghani, PTM/TTP & importantly, so is Durand Line. Now, potential US long term stay & a massive reduction in terrorism. But Pak chose to inherit a tremendous mess that won't affect Iran, Qatar, China or Russia the same way it will affect Pak.
Pak still has refugee issue, will inherit a new civil war in Afg or an independent Taliban. What should Pak's interests be? Back to basics- Dealing with issues in Pakistan for once: fencing off Afghans & REMOVING all extremist ideologies instead of trying to use them.
Pak could have dealt with its own things better in expectation of US staying & not worry about fixing things post US withdrawal. In fact, the US ALWAYS wanted Pak's support, but Pak simply didn't want to for its own logic. https://twitter.com/StarOfHilal/status/1358794564761513984?s=19
My worry would be what actually happens when the US leaves. Pakistan can both keep on good terms with the US & secure its own security in Pakistan. Instead, it's only helping other powers get a foothold in Afghanistan while Pakistan ends up with nothing.
May add some more in a follow up thread. There is a LOT more I want to say about it. Please like & share this, as it takes some time to do & I want this seen by as many in Pakistan as possible! Mind my typos & grammar errors please & other errors I may accidentally have made.
