Read on Twitter
This piece sums up a lot of my recent concerns and brings to mind a few random thoughts https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-canada-is-sleepwalking-into-a-third-wave-and-it-could-be-the-worst-one
1) The emergence of variants with horrifying possible effects on our end game with this must underline that we are dealing with a global crisis that requires global solutions.
An entire public health strategy can be upset by the management of a crisis “elsewhere”.
An entire public health strategy can be upset by the management of a crisis “elsewhere”.
If lapses in judgment around international travel (despite the copious amounts of direction) is any indication, we are too far down the road as a society to stop int’l travel. Nor do we want to. We remain globally connected and therefore globally vulnerable.
2) From a business perspective, we are in the soup for much longer than the spring.
With combo of poor virus rollout, variant emergence and the challenge of restoring consumer confidence, I don’t see a realistic scenario of returning to pre-pandemic economy prior to this Fall.
With combo of poor virus rollout, variant emergence and the challenge of restoring consumer confidence, I don’t see a realistic scenario of returning to pre-pandemic economy prior to this Fall.
To be sure, the return of “patio season” will alleviate a lot of economic challenges and increase revenues at restaurant but that will continue to happen mid-pandemic. The “bump” is temporary.
In the hospitality industry, that timing plunks us back into fall and the volatile winter season with the pot’l that we are in roughly the same scenario (albeit hopefully improved with some vaccine rollout).
So it’s a daunting prospect & puts the pressure on a profitable summer
So it’s a daunting prospect & puts the pressure on a profitable summer
3) If a surge is likely due to the aforementioned factors (and I defer to public health experts), temporary suppression is absolutely key.
Yes our infection rates are “stable” but they need to be reduced to relieve pressure at our hospitals and prepare for the coming wave.
Yes our infection rates are “stable” but they need to be reduced to relieve pressure at our hospitals and prepare for the coming wave.
I tend to think in analogies. Remember the record snowfall this fall?
Between dumps, most if not all of us got out there and shovelled, knowing full well that our work was in vain and more snow would come to erase our efforts.
Between dumps, most if not all of us got out there and shovelled, knowing full well that our work was in vain and more snow would come to erase our efforts.
But nevertheless we shovelled between dumps because we knew, if we didn’t,the cumulative snowfall would overwhelm us and we would hurt our backs and spend the rest of the winter miserable.
Ok maybe that last part is just me.
Ok maybe that last part is just me.
We need to get to covid zero or close to it so that we can build up our collective resistance (economic and health care system) to weather what is now looking to be around the corner.
The prospect of still doing this until fall and beyond makes my stomach turn. Like many businesses, we are exhausted from having to adapt and rapidly assess risk each day.
We all have family members we don’t get to see. My heart breaks for those that can’t see grandkids.
We all have family members we don’t get to see. My heart breaks for those that can’t see grandkids.
So if it’s a long road, what to do:
If you are business owner (and I’m a broken record), you have to adapt for the long term. It’s not going to be enough to hold your breath to spring
If you are business owner (and I’m a broken record), you have to adapt for the long term. It’s not going to be enough to hold your breath to spring
If you are a policy maker, it’s time to reach out and engage with a diverse group of problem solvers. There isn’t a monopoly on good ideas right now (frankly, and I say this respect, no one no where 100% knows how to tackle this - it’s novel to us all).
It does feel like we reaching the limit of conventional solutions (both financial supports, public health measures) and given the likely extended timeline this could all use a good humble rethink.
I’ve often thought that something as apolitical as a global pandemic should soften our hard political edges.
In our worst moments, our elbows are up higher than ever.
In our best moments our hands should be outstretched and our ears open.
In our worst moments, our elbows are up higher than ever.
In our best moments our hands should be outstretched and our ears open.
