Read on Twitter
The latest @ISEAS regional survey is out (PDF: https://www.iseas.edu.sg/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/The-State-of-SEA-2021-v2.pdf).
Many quick takes have focused on the "how bad it is for China and how high expectations are for US" narrative.
I don't see that as the main takeaway from the survey, here's why
Many quick takes have focused on the "how bad it is for China and how high expectations are for US" narrative.
I don't see that as the main takeaway from the survey, here's why
1) Top 3 challenges facing the region: Covid, economic recovery, and inequality, NOT great power politics (e.g. SCS flashpoints). These issues are also where the US has little leverage or credibility. Guess where reg supply chains (econ+health) vulnerabilities lie?
2) biggest concerns with ASEAN are related with its cumbersome and lagging institutions as well as great power politics splitting the group apart.
3) on the issue that matters the most for SEA, Covid, who has done the most to help?
4) On SCS (again, NOT the main concern in SEA), China's behavior clearly seen as the biggest source of the problem. But SEA states also do NOT welcome the military presence of other powers in SCS.
5) salient for economic recovery (a top issue for SEA), US-China trade war and protectionism, the preferred views are quite clear
6) on possibly choosing between US and China, again the preferred views are quite clear
7) but if forced to choose, then yes, the favorability tilts one way more than the other. This is the one figure many analysts have focused on but they *separate* it from the original preference of not choosing and the top 3 challenges above
We can debate further the findings and their interpretation. But I'd like to highlight that the survey is about SEA views about the region, not just about US-China. Understanding SEA starts with giving it agency; we can care about more things than just US-PRC competition <end>
