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I'm primarily a swing trader. Been doing a lot of lower tf stuff to stay busy and some of it is really promising but my money mostly comes from positions held for weeks/months
Swing trading is kinda easy, if you're disciplined. Here's my thought process.
1/n
Swing trading is kinda easy, if you're disciplined. Here's my thought process.
1/n
WHAT does macro supply/demand *CURRENTLY* look like?
This is actually really easy to tell: are we mostly going up, down or sideways on htf?
Are more people buying or selling?
This is actually really easy to tell: are we mostly going up, down or sideways on htf?
Are more people buying or selling?
WHY does it look like this? Are there large entities accumulating holdings? Distributing? Is it retail? Is funding just too expensive (mex ETH quantos 2018)? Are tokens being unlocked? Are the fundamentals being improved faster than expected?
HOW will I know when the scenario changes? Do I have options data? Am I watching the premia? Funding? On-chain flows? Are there token unlocks?
Remember, we're playing for trends. Sudden events might cause fluctuations, but I'm looking for htf trend reversals.
10% ain't shit.
Remember, we're playing for trends. Sudden events might cause fluctuations, but I'm looking for htf trend reversals.
10% ain't shit.
WHEN do I enter?
Easy, what's the average pullback on the asset in a macro trend? Scatter orders at that distance from the market. Move orders with the market as necessary, until my position is full. Ride the trend, get a likely entry over an ideal one.
Easy, what's the average pullback on the asset in a macro trend? Scatter orders at that distance from the market. Move orders with the market as necessary, until my position is full. Ride the trend, get a likely entry over an ideal one.
I don't wanna miss a 300% trend by being greedy for an extra 3% trying to snipe a perfect entry, I'd rather just be sure I get in. Again, small fluctuations ain't shit.
DON'T exit. Not until the macro reasons you're looking at for trend reversal start to play out. They'll start showing up, then price will follow. You'll miss the top. Boo hoo! You missed the final 30% on your 300% move, cry some more about it.
Again, confidence/probability trumps trying to "maximize" almost every time. Calling tops and bottoms is for paid group leaders and self-fellating on twitter, it doesn't make you any money unless you trade it, and most of the time those trades are detrimental.
That's the basic thought process. Pretty simple. Additional tips/tricks:
don't look at your pnl, like ever. Trade your data feeds (charts, etc), not your $ amount
Scale in to moves. If price is moving in your direction, it means you're right. So add, slowly and carefully.
don't look at your pnl, like ever. Trade your data feeds (charts, etc), not your $ amount
Scale in to moves. If price is moving in your direction, it means you're right. So add, slowly and carefully.
Make sure your average entry is well below (or above, if short) the market, so that you're left with room to see the trend reverse and take profit long before your PnL turns red.
Stoplosses should be really wide. Like, really wide. Get small exposure, add as the market confirms
Stoplosses should be really wide. Like, really wide. Get small exposure, add as the market confirms
You can achieve full risk fairly quickly, fairly easily and with high confidence by not blowing your load all at once.
Wait. For. The. Market. To. Confirm.
Use leverage sparingly. Funding, basis and rolling costs can eat into profit, but sometimes they work in your favor
Wait. For. The. Market. To. Confirm.
Use leverage sparingly. Funding, basis and rolling costs can eat into profit, but sometimes they work in your favor
Find something else to do while you wait.
Once you've pulled the trigger on a position, just wait. Keep busy with something else, or you'll end up overthinking, overtrading and cucking yourself out of a potentially massive win.
/fin
Once you've pulled the trigger on a position, just wait. Keep busy with something else, or you'll end up overthinking, overtrading and cucking yourself out of a potentially massive win.
/fin
oh, one last thing
most swing trades will be small wins, small losses or washes
but trading like this opens you to the possibility of catching a massive run. I've caught 4 total and they are what made my career, not the countless tiny trades in-between.
most swing trades will be small wins, small losses or washes
but trading like this opens you to the possibility of catching a massive run. I've caught 4 total and they are what made my career, not the countless tiny trades in-between.
