(1) There’s a lot at play with battery materials: supply/demand, geopolitics, human rights, water supplies, technological innovation, etc.
Demand for battery materials will continue to increase (obvi). The exact amount depends on new vehicle demand and policy targets for EVs.
Batteries make up a large fraction of demand for some materials (e.g. Li, Co), whereas other industries (e.g. steel) drive demand for Ni and Mn.
The shift from high cobalt to low/no cobalt chemistries is real. Driven by the cost of cobalt and performance/durability considerations.
The shift in battery demand from consumer electronics (still use high cobalt chemistries) to electric vehicles contributes to the📉cobalt per kWh. Not shown is the corresponding increase📈in the amount of nickel in batteries.
Materials used in batteries are relatively abundant in the Earth’s crust (estimated reserves shown below). But there could be bottlenecks in the supply of processed materials in the next decade, esp. if there aren’t clear signals for EV demand.
While reserves are somewhat geographically concentrated, processing of these minerals is even more concentrated (in China).
(2) Recycling *could* meet a measurable chunk of demand for battery materials as more EVs come on/off the road, e.g., 30% or more of material demand in 2035 for the scenario considered in the factsheet.
But a lot needs to happen to get there. Battery collection rates, metal recovery rates, and growth of the EV market are key variables in the amount of recycled content we achieve.
E.g., even at high collection and recovery rates, there will be a lag between number of EVs coming off the road as coming on as EV adoption grows.
((Numbers in our analysis reflect the passenger EV adoption scenario in BNEF’s 2019 EV Outlook, e.g. 6.2 million full BEVs out of 16.1 million total US passenger vehicle sales in 2035. Admittedly, this is much less than 100% sales by 2035!))
General conclusions ~hold at different rates of EV adoption but not material quantities.
(3) Recycling can lower GHG emissions further, but renewable electricity for vehicle charging is still the biggie. Renewable electricity for battery manufacturing helps lower emissions too.
(4) We need policies to minimize the impacts of mining and enable recycling, e.g.:

☑️Standards for recycled content in EV batteries
☑️Waste management policies that enable safe transport and handling of used EV batteries
☑️Standards for labeling (e.g. chemistry, cycle history)
A decent amount of policies are in motion, lots abroad but some in US.

The European Commission recently *proposed* measures requiring the collection of used batteries and to set standards for recycled content in new batteries. https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_20_2312
. @CalRecycle is halfway through a 2-year effort to produce policy recommendations to the California state legislature to enable “as close as possible” to 100% reuse or recycling of EV batteries: https://calepa.ca.gov/climate/lithium-ion-car-battery-recycling-advisory-group/
In all, I’m encouraged by the attention given to battery materials and recycling. But, a lot needs to happen to achieve a sustainable supply chain and the level of recycling we need.
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