$FUSE - Money Lion merger acquisition - I read through the entire presentation, built a model and I have more questions than answers.
Disclaimers:
I have NO shares any more.
I DO NOT have a short position
I want the company and other shareholders to do well.
Here is the SPAC presentation
http://www.moneylion.com/wp-content/themes/moneylion/resources/pdf/MoneyLion-Investor-Presentation-February-2021.pdf

All the data I gathered is from this presentation and other sources (I will reference ALL SOURCES)
Question 1: Why is ARPU different from calculated ARPU for NRR non GAAP?

ARPU is mentioned as $148 at 100% of users.
Adjusted Non GAAP Revenue Run rate is $102M
Active users are 1.434 Million
Simple Math: Actual Non GAPP Adjusted ARPU = $72.86 annual or $59 for Fee alone ARPU
Question 1: Why is ARPU different from calculated ARPU for NRR non GAAP?ARPU is mentioned as $148 at 100% of users.Adjusted Non GAAP Revenue Run rate is $102MActive users are 1.434 MillionSimple Math: Actual Non GAPP Adjusted ARPU = $72.86 annual or $59 for Fee alone ARPU
Question 1: Why is ARPU different from calculated ARPU for NRR non GAAP?ARPU is mentioned as $148 at 100% of users.Adjusted Non GAAP Revenue Run rate is $102MActive users are 1.434 MillionSimple Math: Actual Non GAPP Adjusted ARPU = $72.86 annual or $59 for Fee alone ARPU
Question 1: Why is ARPU different from calculated ARPU for NRR non GAAP?ARPU is mentioned as $148 at 100% of users.Adjusted Non GAAP Revenue Run rate is $102MActive users are 1.434 MillionSimple Math: Actual Non GAPP Adjusted ARPU = $72.86 annual or $59 for Fee alone ARPU
$FUSE: Question 2: Why is long term ARPU going DOWN as the revenue increases? Is there lack of pricing power?
2024E Non GAAP adjusted estimate Rev = $424M
2024 E Users active = 6.987M
Simple Math: Non GAAP Adjusted ARPU = $60.68 annual or $5.06 Monthly
$FUSE: Question 2: Why is long term ARPU going DOWN as the revenue increases? Is there lack of pricing power?2024E Non GAAP adjusted estimate Rev = $424M2024 E Users active = 6.987MSimple Math: Non GAAP Adjusted ARPU = $60.68 annual or $5.06 Monthly
$FUSE: Question 2: Why is long term ARPU going DOWN as the revenue increases? Is there lack of pricing power?2024E Non GAAP adjusted estimate Rev = $424M2024 E Users active = 6.987MSimple Math: Non GAAP Adjusted ARPU = $60.68 annual or $5.06 Monthly
Q3: $FUSE: CAC (Customer Acquisition Costs) are going up 72% from 2020 to 2024. Why is churn so bad?

In 2020 Money Lion CAC was $20.37 (Total spend $11M / acquired users 540,000)

By 2024, the CAC is going up to $35.12 (Total spend $195M / acquired users 5,553,000)
Q4: Why is fee ARPU dropping faster than overall ARPU? Does the company NOT expect fees to be a big part of future? If that is so is the PPT wrong?

ARPU is dropping 20% from 2020 calculated Non GAAP adjusted revenue to 2024.

The fee ARPU down 40% from $59 ('20) to $36 ('24)
Q5: What is current active user churn per month? Why is it so high?

In July 2019 the company CEO mentioned 4 million users to Techcrunch writer (article below)

In PPT total users by 2021 is 1.434 Million according to presentation.

Why is it lower? https://news.crunchbase.com/news/moneylion-raises-160m-series-c-nears-unicorn-status/
Fintech Startup MoneyLion Raises $100M Series C, ‘Nears Unicorn Status’

The funding round amounts to more than double the $42 million Series B raised by the company just 18 months ago.

https://news.crunchbase.com/news/moneylion-raises-160m-series-c-nears-unicorn-status/
I would like more pairs of eyes on this to see if I missed anything. @SpacGuru @SpacLife @Mindwalletbody @DJohnson_CPA and @kingtutspacs

Can you please let me know if I am missing something obvious?
You can follow @mukund.
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