Read on Twitter
Several inaccurate readings in this piece about @jakeauch & the #ma04 primary, which we analyzed for our post-primary event. Seems like that may keep happening nationally, so re-sharing a few notes #ma4 #mapoli (1/) https://twitter.com/alex_sammon/status/1360271074190098435
MISREADING THE RESULTS
“Progressives split the vote”?
Sure, everyone splits the vote in a 9-way field. But #M4All supporters got less than 50% of the vote in this race. Not enough in a head to head challenge. (2/)
“Progressives split the vote”?
Sure, everyone splits the vote in a 9-way field. But #M4All supporters got less than 50% of the vote in this race. Not enough in a head to head challenge. (2/)
MISREADING THE DISTRICT
#ma04 is a D+9 district
Successful primaries from the left have been in D+24 & D+29 districts
Just ask Richie Neal (D+12) and Steve Lynch (D+10) about leftist challenges go in this type of district (3/)
https://cookpolitical.com/pvi-map-and-district-list
#ma04 is a D+9 district
Successful primaries from the left have been in D+24 & D+29 districts
Just ask Richie Neal (D+12) and Steve Lynch (D+10) about leftist challenges go in this type of district (3/)
https://cookpolitical.com/pvi-map-and-district-list
MISREADING THE DISTRICT (part II)
In the 2020 presidential primary, Biden and Bloomberg got 53% of the vote in #ma04 #ma4 (and as noted above 55% went against #m4all in the congressional primary)
Charlie Baker won by 2:1 in 2018. Not a primary-from-the-left district (4/)
In the 2020 presidential primary, Biden and Bloomberg got 53% of the vote in #ma04 #ma4 (and as noted above 55% went against #m4all in the congressional primary)
Charlie Baker won by 2:1 in 2018. Not a primary-from-the-left district (4/)
MISREADING TURNOUT
Major reason for 2020 progressive primary losses in #mapoli according to Data For Progress?
High turnout (political science confirms low turnout better for ideological extreme candidates)
2022 turnout will be high due to competitive gov primary (5/)
Major reason for 2020 progressive primary losses in #mapoli according to Data For Progress?
High turnout (political science confirms low turnout better for ideological extreme candidates)
2022 turnout will be high due to competitive gov primary (5/)
