Starting a thread to discuss my review of #NFL drafts since 2015 & how #DaBears & Ryan Pace rank. I broke down the analysis into 8 different criteria:

- Total AV
- AV/Pick
- Drafted % of Expected AV
- BPA
- Position BPA
- Capital Allocation
- Capital Acquisition
- Boom/Bust

For those who are unfamiliar with AV from @pfref:

"Essentially, AV is a substitute for --- and a significant improvement upon, in my opinion --- metrics like 'number of seasons as a starter' or 'number of times making the pro bowl' or the like."

Weighted AV was used for this.

The other major factor used here was draft trade value charts. I used the Rich Hill draft trade value chart for all picks:

https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart-Rich-Hill.asp

Now that all sources have been explained, let's begin.

Total AV: This is simply the sum of AV for all players drafted by each team from 2015 to 2020.

This tells us how much production each team has drafted since the 2015 draft.

#DaBears & Ryan Pace have drafted AV of 410, ranking 15th most in that span. NFL Median is 409.

AV/Pick: This is simply total AV drafted divided by each teams number of picks.

This tells us how productive each draft choice has been on a per pick basis.

#DaBears & Ryan Pace have drafted AV/Pick of 10.25, ranking 4th best. NFL Median was 8.35 AV/Pick.

% of Expected AV: This is AV Drafted by each team divided by the Exp. AV of those draft slots.

Exp. AV = avg AV of the 5 picks before & after (i.e. 15th pick exp. AV = avg of picks 10-14 & 16-20)

#DaBears & Pace have drafted 107% of exp AV, ranking 12th best. NFL Median = 102%.

BPA = Best Player Available. Find BPA for each draft slot, add BPA AV up for each team.

Actual AV Drafted / BPA AV = capitalization rate (%)

i.e. Fournette = 25 AV
BPA = Mahomes 54 AV
Cap Rate = 25/54 = 46%

#DaBears & Pace draft at a cap rate of 32%, 10th best. Median = 29%

Position BPA: Same concept as BPA, but only includes players at same position.

Tells us how well team targets a position.

i.e. Fournette: 25 AV
RB BPA: Kamara 52 AV
Pos Cap Rate = 25/52 = 48%

#DaBears & Pace have drafted at pos. cap rate of 52%, ranking 10th best. Median = 50%

Capital Allocation: This determines ability to find value in their draft capital. Total AV / draft capital value.

i.e. Trubisky 33 AV.
2nd = 717 draft capital
33 AV / 717 Capital = 0.05.

#DaBears & Pace have drafted 0.13 AV/Draft Capital, ranking 20th best. Median was 0.15.

Capital Acquisition: This is how much each team values quality or quantity of picks.

In order to determine this, we blend the rankings of total picks & total Draft Capital (Rich Hill Chart) in order to get an overall rank.

#DaBears & Pace rank 21st best in Capital Acquisition.

Boom/Bust: This assigns each pick to a bucket based on AV & standard deviation above / below the avg AV of their draft class round. QBs were treated separate from all other positions to even out AVs preference to value QBs. Consistent or chaotic.

#DaBears & Pace rank 16th best.

All in all, #DaBears & Pace ranks 13th in the Draft Power Rankings. They do an adequate job of picking sufficient value overall and a great job of getting value out of each pick. But they struggle with the cost of each pick and acquisition & maintenance of picks.

Top 5 Draft Power Rankings:

1. KC #ChiefsKingdom
2. IND #ForTheShoe
3. NO #Saints
4. BAL #RavensFlock
5. MIA #FinsUp

Bottom 5:

32. NYJ #TakeFlight
31. LVR #RaiderNation
30. CIN #SeizeTheDey
29. ARZ #RedSea
28. PIT #HereWeGo