Like @MichaelEWebber says, there is an ongoing cold snap in the majority of Texas. Follow @joshdr83 as he goes through the LMP (Locational Marginal Pricing) of electricity in ERCOT. I'll add some color on what is causing these elevated prices and what to expect in the coming days https://twitter.com/MichaelEWebber/status/1360235488930627584

For one, this is not a singular day event, we will have close to freezing temperatures as our *highs* in Austin, TX for the weekend, coming to a climax on Monday where the high is 27 and the low is 3 degrees... THREE DEGREES.

To add context to this, the 99.6% design temperature for Austin is 25.7 degrees F--meaning the buildings most conservatively sized for cold weather temps are designed for keeping the space heated at the planned temp with outside an outside temp of 25.7 F

Sustained freezing temps for a few days means our heaters will be running continuously. Those dwellings being heated by *electric* heaters (resistance or heat pump) will be strained. I would bet virtually all heat pumps in TX will see their coefficients of performance approach 1

This is a fancy way of saying: these heat pumps will need help to heat their spaces. The help comes in the form of electric strip heat (essentially a hair dryer on "hot" setting). Electric strip heat will easily double the demand from these homes, perhaps quadruple it.

According to data from IPUMS ( https://usa.ipums.org/usa/index.shtml ), approximately 60% of Texan dwellings are heated by electricity. So let's set the stage in the next tweet.

~60% of Texan residences will be demanding a lot of electricity this weekend through early next week. Some will have heaters that can't heat the space adequately and will be running the entire day. These heaters are inefficient and want A LOT of electricity.

We are likely going to reach residential demand near summer levels (like when it is 105 F outside). This is uncommon in the winter in Texas. A manuscript in review by me, @joshdr83, Eric Wilson, and @MichaelEWebber models what would happen if ALL of ERCOT had electric heating.

Spoilers: the winter peak soars past the summer peak of the grid system, mostly driven by the back-up resistance heating (remember the blow dryers on "hot") called on by heat pumps that cannot completely heat the space by themselves. This likely causes dispatch problems in ERCOT.

We are getting a sense of the supply-demand dynamics by following the price of electricity across Texas seen here: ( http://www.ercot.com/content/cdr/contours/rtmLmpHg.html). Follow @joshdr83 for more details on that. If I had to guess... the gradient contours match the temperature differentials in the state.