Read on Twitter
1/ Suicidology Update: 2020 USA Synthesis
In the states and counties that have so far reported suicide numbers, for the months in which we have data, SUICIDE RATES DECREASED IN AMERICA IN 2020.
(every word in that sentence matters, and has to be fully understood)
In the states and counties that have so far reported suicide numbers, for the months in which we have data, SUICIDE RATES DECREASED IN AMERICA IN 2020.
(every word in that sentence matters, and has to be fully understood)
2/ These numbers are NOT:
* an "estimate" of 2020 suicides.
* a prediction of what 2021 holds
* a guarantee that 2020 will overall show less suicides
* an "estimate" of 2020 suicides.
* a prediction of what 2021 holds
* a guarantee that 2020 will overall show less suicides
3/ These numbers ARE:
* a comprehensive scan of all reported 2020 suicide numbers, to give a full picture of what has been reported without bias
* a comprehensive scan of all reported 2020 suicide numbers, to give a full picture of what has been reported without bias
4/ Florida is the big addition (-13%), however Florida's number is a lot more challenging to estimate lag, so I increased my error tolerance.
5/ We also have a data set from the CDC to July which verifies the estimate (adjusting for lag, -4.1% to -1.5% overall was estimated in my last post, the actual number to July is -4.3%). I still expect this number to increase a bit over time.
6/ Quite a dip was observed in Mar-May, and its tracking on the low side to July. Overall in the US, to July, suicides were down by 4.3%.
7/ ALL SOURCES ARE HERE, THE SPREADSHEET IS HERE: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Qe7JygejkHS0EvWkoBrURbFUyjBk5aYrb-U0gzl3rE/edit?usp=sharing
8/ There are a lot of people that understood what this data is. There were a lot of... motivated thinkers... that severely misinterpreted my data or intention. So I want to be very clear in the next couple of posts:
9/ This data is a scan of reported numbers where official sources (government, state, county authorities) were quoted and I could verify it. This is the type of data that is SENT TO THE CDC for national tabulation.
10/ The data includes a lag estimate, as suicides take time to code. I painstakingly reviewed annual reports in the same releases and compared them to the final number to estimate it. It was not fun or easy. I can't know what lag will show, but I can estimate it.
11/ My lag estimate is that the actual decrease is not 11% but about 4%, and with my estimated error tolerance it could approach a 1% decrease. This is for WHAT THE CURRENT NUMBERS MEAN, not a projection of a final number for all states.
12/ This data is UNBIASED. I've included every number I found. Unlike famous articles (NYT on Clark County, for example) which were DISPROPORTIONATELY CITED, this is a complete scan and database. If I'm missing a number, send it to me!
email: [email protected]
email: [email protected]
13/ This data is just data. It is not "pro-lockdown" or "anti-lockdown". It is simply all the data I found. If you disagree with the number, it probably says a lot about you and your understanding as to what the number is, or that you blindly follow the awful Alex Berenson.
14/ So, to repeat....
In the following statement, EVERY WORD MATTERS:
In the states and counties that have so far reported suicide numbers, for the months in which we have data, SUICIDE RATES HAVE DECREASED IN AMERICA IN 2020.
In the following statement, EVERY WORD MATTERS:
In the states and counties that have so far reported suicide numbers, for the months in which we have data, SUICIDE RATES HAVE DECREASED IN AMERICA IN 2020.
15/ This is not counterintuitve, this is not unexpected. This is just counter to the *moral panic* and *chicken littling* early on in the pandemic that *guaranteed* increases in suicides. These predictions were not founded on data, they were speculative.
16/ Speculation about future suicide rates is not easy, and we do not have the predictive ability these early reports implied.
17/ There are things we can do NOW that can prevent against suicide increases:
* materially support people who endure hardship due to the pandemic
* support people with disabilities and severe mental illness
* governments should not use austerity during this time of crisis
* materially support people who endure hardship due to the pandemic
* support people with disabilities and severe mental illness
* governments should not use austerity during this time of crisis
18/ * recognize that there is likely systematic racism in the suicide changes. 3 states so far have shown that rates have INCREASED for Black and Hispanic Americans, but DECREASED for White Americans. Fighting systemic racism is anti-suicidal.
19/ * provide significant material support (this means $$) to underprivileged and marginalized people
* pass and enforce safe storage laws, cooldown periods on gun purchase, and America, you still need to have that gun convo.
* pass and enforce safe storage laws, cooldown periods on gun purchase, and America, you still need to have that gun convo.
20/ These are effective, proven, and helpful ways to ensure a national effort to reduce suicides.
