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Here's the thing- many experts don't think transformative change is possible until it happens. Countless folks in positions of power told us Georgia wasn't a real battleground- as recently as last fall, but consistently in 2012, 2014, 2016 and throughout the Abrams campaign. https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1359992368771059713
Nearly every local & nat'l expert said GA Dems had to get 30% white support bc voters of color could never close the gap. Warnock & Ossoff got a record-breaking 27% of whites combined w/huge support and turnout levels by all voters of color. (Read the NYT piece for more on this)
I was told at one point in 2016 that "the white people are easier in North Carolina". In the early part of the decade we didn't pitch a full state flip, we focused on building local wins in the state legislature, moving the needle on registration and civic engagement basics.
The political data industrial complex is not built to have vision, to see what is possible are to know the nuances of each state, and I implore political data experts to wield their extreme power judiciously. Our work has always been data driven-
looking holistically at populations, not just the electorate now, but population trends, unregistered numbers- combined w/deep local knowledge which shines light, for example, on where the census didn't reach and where it erased communities that very much exist and are growing.
The data and consulting experts for the most part shot us down every step of the way with very notable exceptions (see: Tom Bonier).
Part of this is the anti-Blackness of the Democratic industrial complex, which plays out in many ways
Part of this is the anti-Blackness of the Democratic industrial complex, which plays out in many ways
and was a major reason that GA wasn't taken seriously; Black Georgians were not seen to be as valuable for understanding or courting as white suburban women.
I am a booster for the Sun Belt, but I reject the idea that we should give up on midwestern or other "red" states.
I am a booster for the Sun Belt, but I reject the idea that we should give up on midwestern or other "red" states.
We must create our own reality, grounded in an in-depth analysis of the data- not just who's voting now but who is not, and fight to build our local parties. We know Dems at their best are the best at fighting for and representing ALL people,
and we should build the diverse coalitions required to do so everywhere. Success will look different state to state, and that is OK.
I don't mean to beat up on Nate Cohn- whose work I regularly read, learn from and appreciate. My point is the data and analytics folks,
I don't mean to beat up on Nate Cohn- whose work I regularly read, learn from and appreciate. My point is the data and analytics folks,
and especially those who consult for campaigns, committees and lefty orgs, have value to add, but they cannot alone drive strategy. They are an important tool in the tool box, but donors, influencers & decision-makers in our party have over-relied on them,
stopping Democrats from having and executing a bolder and long term strategy. Which erects barriers for the visionary state leaders who, unlike @staceyabrams now, don't have an NYT byline, but are worthy of investment.
