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Parsing Ontario Government pronouncements is always difficult, because we aren't given more than about 50% of the facts. But yesterday -- Dr. Brown saying we are headed for disaster -- should give us pause to reflect. 
2/ The first element of the presser was Lecce announcing that March Break was postponed until April 12. Why? If one accepts the answer, to keep transmission down by not providing a week for people to go out, congregate and keeping children in school...
3/ Well, let's not forget that this was the first week BACK to school for thousands, as they had been sent home to, er... to... limit transmission. Yes, the exact opposite strategy for the exact same goal. Head scratcher. But okay, let's say they've adjusted and now believe...
4/ ...that keeping kids in school is critical to reducing transmission. One would imagine, then, that the date of postponement is movable, or completely conditional upon getting numbers down. So, clearly the implication is that March is going to be tough. Tougher than now...
5/ The analysis of the modelling is what prompted John McGrath to ask Dr. Brown if he was correct in thinking we were headed for disaster. Dr. Brown's answer: YES. Oddly, no equivocation whatsoever. Thank goodness he didn't ask Dr. Williams! But if so, and if it's critical...
6/ ...to prevent Ontarians from using a "vacation" to go out, congregate, eat at restaurants, spend days together spreading COVID, what explains the simultaneous lessening of restrictions? If the restaurants, ski hills and assorted other options were simply unavailable...
7/ ...how could it matter whether there was a break? Conversely, if they are open, how could postponing the break make much difference? At the end of the day the important points are this: 1) we are entering the early part of a Phase 3 based on the spread of new variants;...
8/ ...2) numbers have been trending in the right direction, but have not diminished enough; 3) the Province is getting the message "We are headed for disaster" and rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic; 4) since widespread vaccines will not be a reality for a couple...
9/ ...of months at least, we need alternative measures to stop spread; 5) opening up and reducing restrictions is the OPPOSITE of what needs to be done; 6) the March Break issue is a non-issue, given the confused contradictory messages given at the same time -- there...
10/ ...is really no credible, consistent explanation for it; and 7) given all of these one has to conclude one of two things, either that the Province is incompetent at managing this, or the Province has goals that take precedence over containing the pandemic. I am not...
11/ ...convinced that either option is better than the other, and, most likely, it's a little of both. But I am convinced that the intent is to muddle along following another principle (more in a sec), and a communications plan to blame the federal government and construct...
12/ ...(with help from Erin O'Toole and other Con provincial governments) an argument to absolve their own actions. And here's the thing: no matter how poorly or how well a government manages a public health crisis like this, the public will want to hold somebody accountable...
13 ...for unpleasant outcomes. And at that point, the narrative will be what matters. And that is why we have a lot of clamouring over "botched" handling of things that did not admit any "handling" whatsoever. Effectively, the same thing Trump was doing with claiming...
14/ ...that he could not lose without substantial fraud: setting the table. The key here is that, if we get the promised vaccines, and subsequently beat back COVID, there will still be an opportunity to blame the federal government for not doing it better. For the feds...
15/ ...it's important to note that if the pandemic rages out-of-control and people need a scapegoat, all bets are off. It won't matter whether they've done all they could. The folks in charge when major disasters happen will have a hard time changing the narrative that appears...
16/ ...to most as the obvious truth, whether entirely true or not. So there's a lot at stake in not just doing all they can, but making sure that it succeeds. But it would help if they had partners, instead of a group of unwilling collaborators with incoherent strategies...
17/ ...beyond the one: blaming the federal government for all of their own failings. This includes the continued talk about rapid testing while fewer than about 5% of all the rapid tests transferred to Provinces have even been used! This brings us back to that one principle...
18/ ...I wrote about a few tweets ago. Puzzling over the muddled, contradictory and frankly incompetent sounding messages at yesterday's presser, I started to ask, "what is the guiding principle that could unite all of these incoherent moves?" And here's what it seems to be...
19/ ...in Ontario, going back to early in Ford's administration and continuing right through the pandemic: reward ideological friends, disadvantage ideological enemies. It explains everything, from March Break, to stacking conservation authorities with developers, to...
20/ ...the original dictate: interfere with Toronto and other municipalities' governments and elections, to pledging to open up the Green Belt, to constructing an ill-advised, unnecessary new highway through sensitive lands, to using MZOs to overturn local authority. At the...
21/ ...end of the day, this Province is about "who you know", not "doing what's required".
And THAT is the answer to the question: how do I make sense of their COVID pronouncements?
And THAT is the answer to the question: how do I make sense of their COVID pronouncements?
