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Due to lack of space in our piece, we did not specifically address the situation of the important Alawi community, whose members hold the levers of power in Syria. https://newlinesinstitute.org/syria/kneel-and-starve-under-the-watchful-eye-of-the-secret-police-syrians-go-hungry/ The thread below is based on conversations with Alawis in Lattakia, Tartous, Hama & Damascus
Alawis too are growing increasingly frustrated with the Syrian regime & not just the gov't. In private conversations, Alawis recognize the rampant corruption of his family, describe him as weak & deliberate whether his departure would do more good than harm.
A contact in Lattakia described that her husband, who is personal friends with a cousin of Bashar & would remain silent in political discussions even with close friends & relatives, started cursing Bashar "if my husband started cursing Bashar, truly the situation has become dire"
Alawis are overwhelmingly employed by the Syrian state & hence affected by the depreciation of the Syrian currency. State salaries are worth about $15. Fewer Alawis fled the country during the war & hence fewer can send remittances to keep their families from going hungry.
At the same time, the lavish lifestyle of the Assad clan visible on social media; their thuggish behavior when interacting with others is well-known in the coast. The release of Suleiman al-Assad after 5 years under house arrested for murdering an Alawi general enraged them.
The regime is aware of the discontent among Alawis & is trying to channel the few resources it has left to them. This was visible after the fires on the coast over the summer, economic relief steps & hiring in 2020. See https://twitter.com/Elizrael/status/1316033222518738944 & https://newlinesinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/CGP-Syrian-Economic-Meltdown-June2020.pdf
The destruction of the country by war & rampant corruption simply doesn't leave much for the citizenry, even for Alawis. There are members of the sect who are employed & are still going hungry, children who come to school with torn shoes & beg for food.
Alawis stood by Assad who waged a war that led them to ruin. They expected military victory to improve living conditions, but they're consistently deteriorating. Whether they blame the regime for this or not, they do not believe it is capable of digging them out of the hole.
Many Alawis feel trapped: the regime is corrupt & dysfunctional, but it embroiled them in a war that they perceived as a war of survival. They're terrified of this system collapsing and leaving them exposed to extremists. My earlier piece: https://www.nybooks.com/daily/2019/07/22/between-regime-and-rebels-a-survey-of-syrias-alawi-sect/
Increasingly, however, with the military threat abating & standards of living rapidly deteriorating, Alawis want Assad gone, but they do not want to lose the institutions that they believe are necessary to keep extremists from killing them.
However, the desire among some to see the Assadist system fall is not translated into mobilization. I've asked dozens of Alawis about this & all believe Alawis too will be repressed if they mobilize, even if just to demand bread & electricity, not regime change.
Recent arrests of Alawi social media personalities who complained solely about poverty & corruption (did not criticize the regime) prove them right https://twitter.com/Elizrael/status/1356252731263102977 K. who lives near Lattakia described the arrest, a few months ago, of a decorated Alawi SAA veteran.
The veteran was injured multiple times & his face shows the signs of his injuries. He drank Araq & did a Facebook live video, calling for protests due to rising prices. K. told me: "They took *him*. Do you understand what this means? If they took him, they would take anyone>
>There are things worse than hunger [فيه شي ابشع من الجوع]. Where they take you, death is more comfortable [الموت اريح]. You know what they do to people there, right? You know, you know. All forms of torture." K. said everyone in the community knows about what happens in prisons
While Alawis are better connected within the mukhabarat & their loyalty is harder to question, they are terrified & rightly so. I therefore do not expect them to mobilize in demand of better living conditions. Instead, people turn to suicide, crime, drugs or just go hungry.
